A thunderstorm produced flooding below the southern section of the Schultz Fire.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced flooding below the southern section of the Schultz Fire.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 9:56 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 956 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WEATHER PATTERN WITH FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STEERING WINDS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER PROBABILITIES IN THE VALLEYS OF FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40KTS WITH STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC......................KD AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......DJO FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1002 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-050400- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1002 AM MST MON JUL 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID-DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE SCHULTZ BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE SCHULTZ BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:41 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from a thunderstorm caused flash flooding and debris flow over Paintbrush Lane below the Schutlz Fire burn area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 333012.