A thunderstorm dropped heavy rain over the area that was burned by the Schultz Fire. Heavy runoff produced flash flooding below the burned area in Hutchinson Acres and along Campbell Avenue.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm dropped heavy rain over the area that was burned by the Schultz Fire. Heavy runoff produced flash flooding below the burned area in Hutchinson Acres and along Campbell Avenue.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY. A GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGE IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THIS MEANS HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. && .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE IN WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PRODUCED A GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT FLAGSTAFF AND PHOENIX BASICALLY SHOWING TWICE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER THEY HAD YESTERDAY. ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT...DUE TO THE RIDGE LOCATION...AND THE WAVE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS BEFORE NOON...SPREADING TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST... AFFECTING YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NRN GILA COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE RIM. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MOSTLY SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF RIM. NORTH OF THE RIM...IT IS STILL FAIRLY DRY...SO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED THERE TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS TO DRIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO LOWER VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DRYING TREND LATER NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DRYING TREND THOUGH...AND WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A CONTINUED INCREASE OF MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH LIGHT WINDS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC..................JJ / BOHLIN AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KD FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 936 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-040330- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 936 AM MST SUN JUL 3 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE SCHULTZ BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE AREAS OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...THE LOCUST AND THE WALLOW BURN AREAS...AND THE SCHULTZ BURN AREA IN COCONINO COUNTY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1225 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2011
AZZ006-007-012-015-032015-
COCONINO AZ-
1225 PM MST SUN JUL 3 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
UNTIL 115 PM MST
AT 1219 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF VALLE TO 11
MILES EAST OF VALLE TO 13 MILES WEST OF GRAY MOUNTAIN...AND MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
THIS AREA OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE TUSAYAN AND SOUTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON BY 140 PM MST.
&&
LAT...LON 3597 11151 3537 11160 3530 11194 3560 11230
3614 11230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 149DEG 14KT 3567 11226 3568 11196
3571 11170
41The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:16 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter in Hutchinson Acres reported moderate flooding of roads and washes.
Flash flooding was reported along Campbell Avenue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 333008, 333009.