Hail and Damaging Winds in New Jersey, July 3, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TODAY, THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
AND STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BOUNDARY MAY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HINTING THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SAME IS TRUE OF THE COMPLEX OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA.

HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION THAT THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE DISSIPATING COMPLEXES DURING THE NIGHT WAS COMING TO FRUITION
NEAR MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A BROKEN LINE
FROM NEAR BGM DOWN TO NEAR MRB. THEY WERE NOT GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT WINDS PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT IPT AND SEG, BUT
THEY WERE GENERATING SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOIST COLUMN. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO STABILIZE SOME OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THE
AXIS OF MINIMUM VORTICITY (WHICH WAS DOING A FAIR JOB OF TRACKING
THE LINE) AND THE AXIS OF H8 THETA E ADVECTION LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
MAKE FAIR PROGRESS INTO OUR FORECAST BY DAYBREAK. WE HAVE EXTENDED
THE POPS SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST AND ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN.

THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AROUND
MIDNIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAINLY WERE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. THERE WAS STILL A DECENT SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, SO ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN WITHOUT THE NEED OF
DOWNDRAFTS. WE THEREFORE MAINLY LET THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE
A CHANCE TO VERIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE SHOWN SUNDAY AS BEING THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ALL INDICATIONS ARE
SHOWING SUNDAY TO POSSIBLY BE THE COOLEST DAY. WE MAY HAVE ONGOING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, PLUS
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENING OUT AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD, SO THIS MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
SHARPLY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, WHATEVER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL ALLOW SOME GOOD SURFACE HEATING, SO WE WENT
AHEAD AND STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION, ALL MODELS INDICATE CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING
AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HENCE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE OUT WEST, AND THE LOWEST SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT MAY
NOT MAKE IT THERE BEFORE SUNSET. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MODEST
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -2
TO -4/ BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR /LESS THAN 20 KNOTS/.
THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE,
BUT MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AND WITH PW VALUES
NEAR ONE AND A HALF TO ONE AND THREE QUARTERS, HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAST INTO THE NIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE. A COUPLE OF SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MAY
CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SAME TIME. THIS MAY HELP CREATE SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE, AS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH; HOWEVER, IF THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS CLOSER TO OUR AREA, WE MAY END UP WITH MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS IN THE
SHORT TERM, BUT SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE HUMID THAN SUNDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES DO NOT DROP MUCH MONDAY OR TUESDAY, AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT UP TO 850 MB AND GET TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN MOST INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD IN THE EAST AND OVER THE WEST WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION BY MID-TERM.

OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL START TO SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS.
MAINLY FOCUSING IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT SOUTHERLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE POPS TOO FAST TOWARDS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY SINCE THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSOLATION DUE TO CLOUD
COVER OR THE FRONT COULD LITERALLY JUMP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE
AFFECT ON OUR REGION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY WAVER ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
LATER ON THURSDAY BEFORE COMPLETELY MIXING OUT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FIRE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND MOVE DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE PARENT LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPIN AWAY THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA. MULTIPLE WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT AND CLIP THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORKS ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND BEGIN TO LOWER CEILING A BIT BY LATE TONIGHT...STILL VFR. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE A LOWER LEVEL BKN DECK FORMING BY DAYBREAK AS
SURFACE WINDS BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ENDING BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WHILE THE FRONT MAY LINGER TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY, NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINANT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME S TO SW 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME A
BIT GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CROSSES OUR AREA,
IT COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/DELISI
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/RPW
MARINE...HEAVENER/RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-032000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-032000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.