Strong Wind in Arizona, February 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WINDS DECREASE.TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL ESTABLISHED
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. ONE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHICH IN TANDEM WITH A 110+ KT 300
MB JET IS RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ESPECIALLY
TO OUR NORTH. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONTAL BAND IS STEADILY
MOVING EASTWARD AT THIS TIME AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON A LINE FROM
ABOUT CASA GRANDE-SELLS. MEANWHILE...OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND FULL DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING HAS BEEN REALIZED...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA INTO PINAL
COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS HOISTED LATE THIS MORNING FOR THESE
AREAS AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM. FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.
NOW WITH REGARD TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WHICH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 5 PM. WITH THESE STRONG WINDS AND PARCHED GROUND...BLOWING DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED AREA OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE PHOENIX AREA INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY MOVING
EAST. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH
WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THE
VALLEYS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT WITH QPF AMOUNTS LESS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME UNLUCKY RAIN SHADOWED
AREAS ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SEE
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTHWEST FOR THE PINALENO
MOUNTAINS/MOUNT GRAHAM AND THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR
TWO BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET. THESE VALUES DON'T QUITE MEET WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER
SHIFTS.

ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND MOVES EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FOCUS
WILL TURN TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND OPEN
UP AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE BIG
STORY FOR OUR WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE THE CONSIDERABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE READILY APPARENT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE AN UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST. THE GFS
REMAINS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND AT THIS TIME PREFER A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AROUND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH
GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO 5K TO 8K FT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A
KSAD-KOLS LINE. STRONGER WLY/SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND WIND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
AREAS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WLY/SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN COCHISE COUNTY. EXPECT
THE WINDS IN THE REMAINING VALLEY LOCATIONS TO SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
MOISTURE FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TOWARDS
INTO COLORADO...DRY AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO ARIZONA BY MONDAY.  THE
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN HAS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ510.
    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ503-507>515.
    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ504>506.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1217 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

CORRECT ZONE 510 TEXT

AZZ503-507>509-511>515-200200-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1141 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST WITH WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. BLOWING DUST IN DUST PRONE
AREAS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS.

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES NEAR MT GRAHAM AND MT LEMMON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ501-502-200200-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
1141 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ510-200200-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
1217 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE AREA TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 7
PM MST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUST TO NEAR 50
MPH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 11 AM
TODAY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY.

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TODAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY AN
INCH OR SO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ504>506-200200-
TUCSON METRO AREA-SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
1141 AM MST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING FOR WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO LOWER VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON