High Wind in Alaska, October 14, 2011

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU OCT 13 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ALL OTHER MAJOR FEATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE OLD WEATHER FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE STRONG LOW NORTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CROSS OVER
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TONIGHT WILL
MOVE TO NEAR ATTU FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
BERING WILL SPREAD INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO KENAI
PENINSULA, PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT. RAIN WITH CHANGE TO SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL KEEP THE MOST OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY IN THE
RAIN SHADOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM, THE HIGHER ELEVATION OVER EAST
ANCHORAGE AND THROUGH THE PORTAGE VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS TO
UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE WESTERN
ARM AND KEEP THE EASTERN ARM IN THE STRONG WIND CATEGORY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING THEN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING...RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CHANGE TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEW
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SATURDAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 155 160 165 170 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 11