High Wind in Alaska, November 18 to 19, 2011

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW LIES OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IS MOVING NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.
A MODERATE 300 MB JET CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR CAPE
LISBURNE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE MAIN
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET IS
SUPPORTING THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUND AND THROUGH THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA.

A BROAD MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BROUGHT AREAS OF SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND TO BRISTOL BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
FROM THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOTHER
RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SIMILAR TO THE UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR KISKA
HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS
THE PREFERRED MODEL BECAUSE IT HAS THE BEST CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER JET OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS AROUND THE SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW
MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF KING SALMON AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST WILL BECOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.

THE LARGE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA SATURDAY THEN TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS UNIMAK ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST, BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY. VERY STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SPREADS SNOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING THEN DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND SNOW WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INNTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW AS THE OLD LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 179 180
         STORM 185
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
800 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

AKZ101-111-121-192100-

...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK...

A COLD AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL
EXPERIENCES THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND LATE SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK TO THE REGION SUNDAY AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY A VERY COLD AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE FAR NORTH ARCTIC
OCEAN WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
AGAIN PLUMMETING BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE WEEK AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS...PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ALONG COOK INLET.

AB NOV 11