Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, January 26 to 27, 2011

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POWERFUL ALEUTIAN LOW
THAT IS STARTING TO IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 MB DEEPER THAN NAM OR ECWMF BUT POSITION THROUGH 42
HOURS IS PRETTY GOOD. STILL LOOKING AT LOW CENTER TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BERING ON FRI.

MODELS ALSO INDICATING WEAK LOW OVER GREATER KENAI PEN AREA TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  STRONG 300 MB JET OVER
EASTERN AL AND SOUTHERN AK PEN IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES FRI OVER THE STATE BUT SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...MANY WARNINGS IN PLACE AS WE ARE EXPECTING STRONG
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND NORTH FLOW AS WELL.  SNOW TURNING
TO RAIN THIS EVENING IN EASTERN AL AND AK PEN BUT SNOW IN CENTRAL AL
WITH NORTH FLOW.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD LOOKS AS IF PRIBS
WILL BE IN WARMER AIR SO SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN BUT SUBSTANTIAL WINDS
THU MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...FRONT SHOULD START TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE STRONG SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON.

SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH WEAK LOW OVER KENAI PEN EXPECTING SOME WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN
COOK INLET AREA THU MORNING BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN
THE 20S.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FROM SAT ONWARD LOOKS AS IF PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FETCH OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSPORT A SERIES OF LOWS AND
WAVES ONSHORE. TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN COOK
INLET WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND CHANCE FOR SNOW INLAND.  LOOKS AS
IF A CHANCE OF SNOW IN SOUTHWEST ZONES SUN NIGHT.  BENIGN WEATHER IN
THE BERING AFTER THIS NEXT LARGE STORM EXITS ON SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING: 181
         BLIZZARD WARNING:  187 161 155
MARINE...HURRICANE: 172        STORMS: 170 171 155 165 150 160
         GALES:175 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 11