Strong Wind in Alaska, January 14, 2011

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
144 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. ALL MODELS TAKE CURRENT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AND MEANDER IT AROUND
A BIT BEFORE PUSHING IT WEST AND ALLOWING THE HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY
FALL AS IT PUSHES WEST OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
NORTHWEST ALASKA. AS BOTH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS WELL OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.

VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARKED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE ON MONDAY BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE HIGH ARCTIC TO COVER THE AREA FROM BETTLES NORTHWARD. THE COLD
AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND THEN MODERATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM NEAR JUNEAU
THROUGH WRANGEL ISLAND.

WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CATEGORY OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ON MONDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ONSHORE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE VERY MINOR.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE THAT IS STILL 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RIDGE THEN GETS SQUEEZED WESTWARD BETWEEN LOWS IN THE POLAR REGION
AND A COUPLE OF LOWS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE WEST IT WILL ALLOW THE LOW IN THE
POLAR REGIONS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF BANKS ISLAND BY
00Z WED. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS IDEA. THIS WILL ALLOW A PUSH OF COLD AIR TO DROP
INTO NORTHERN AK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS ACROSS
THE ARCTIC ZONES AND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. THE COLD AIR WILL
THEN GET SHUNTED EAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE NCEP RMOPS
INDICATE VERY LOW MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO DROP A SECOND LOW SOUTH INTO THE CHUKCHI
SEA BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH OR DEEP WITH THE LOW AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. THE GFS HAS A RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CF JAN 11