Strengthening low pressure at the surface and aloft moved across the St. Lawrence River Valley of New York during the morning of November 17th.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
Strengthening low pressure at the surface and aloft moved across the St. Lawrence River Valley of New York during the morning of November 17th. A relatively strong southeast gradient accounted for downslope winds approaching 50 mph to occur along some of the western slope communities of Vermont's Green Mountains. There was some isolated to scattered minor tree damage and power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 1:01 AM EST, 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 101 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE MODERATE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOR THE COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 852 PM EST TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO THIS EVENING'S PACKAGE...MAINLY TO BRING GRIDDED WIND/DEWPOINT DATA MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. ANY BRIEF WET-BULB COOLING PROCESSES AT PCPN ONSET SHOULD WANE AS WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. LATEST NEAR TERM PROGS STILL SHOW ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE FOR FEW HOURS ALONG OUR WESTERN GREEN MOUNTAIN SLOPE COMMUNITIES OVERNIGHT...THUS CURRENT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. INHERITED FCST HAS THIS WELL COVERED...SO OTHER THAN CHANGES NOTED ABOVE...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ENJOY YOUR NIGHT. PREVIOS DISCUSSION... AS OF 20Z...LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL HAS REACHED A LINE FROM BUF- ALB AND WILL MOVE STEADILY NWD OVERSPREADING THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. IMPRESSIVE 850-700MB WAA WILL PROVIDE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTING TO STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE SOME OROGRAPHIC FACTORS IN THE QPF/WIND FORECAST. SE WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN ADIRONDACKS. RAINFALL WILL APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED AN INCH IN THESE AREAS. SOME SHADOWING IS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPR CT/LWR PASSUMPSIC VALLEYS WHICH COULD KNOCK RAINFALL AMTS DOWN TO 0.4 TO 0.6 WITH DOWNSLOPING. LASTLY...IT APPEARS LOW TRACK NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL FAVOR 1" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL. OVERALL...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL EFFECTS THOUGH RIVERS WILL RISE LATE TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW BANKFULL. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON CALIBRATED 3-HRLY THUNDERSTORM PROBS FROM SPC...LOOKING AT A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE MAINLY 09-15Z...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TO THIS POINT...CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES HAVE BEEN LIMITED FURTHER SOUTH AND WITH LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...POTL APPEARS LOW OVERALL. OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT ARE THE GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR RUTLAND COUNTY AND THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. STRONG 925 MB WINDS WILL SUPPORT NARROW AXIS OF SE 25-35 MPH WINDS AT THE SFC WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH FOR A TIME 05-10Z FROM RUTLAND NWD TO CAMBRIDGE/MONTGOMERY. THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO THESE HIGHER WINDS COULD BE CONFINED TO JUST WEST AND OVER THE MTNS. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY AREA OR TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WINDS WILL BE A MORE MODEST 10-20 MPH IN THE BTV AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEEP-LAYER WAA OVERNIGHT AND RAIN...LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC LOW SHOULD BE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SRN QUEBEC NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY. BULK OF 850-700MB WAA IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO STEADY PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM EARLY-MID MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SE-S-WNW...CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS. VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN THRU 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THEN SHOULD SEE SOME CHANGE TO -SW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEST WINDS MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY STRONG...ESPECIALLY 06-12Z THURSDAY WHERE THEY MAY REACH 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTL...BUT APPEARS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT /MID-UPR 20S ON THE MTNS/. LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -7 TO -8C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40-44F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS FOR HIGHS...AND ONLY MID-UPR 30S IN THE 1-2 KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND. SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND NW FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MTNS. OVERALL...COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW SPREAD ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY AT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FT IN NRN NY AND VT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG FAVORED MTN SLOPES. WITH BUILDING LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...A BIT BETTER POTL FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW UPR TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED WITH A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION SEPARATED BY PERIODS OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH AREA UNDER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CAROLINAS EXTENDING NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT 500 MB...PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST FLOW WITH DEPARTING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. CLIPPER SYSTEM SCOOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL CROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHILE BTV WARNING AREA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLIPPER ARRIVES SATURDAY AND TRACKS ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND MORE COMPACT WITH PRECIP AREA...WHILE GFS HAS LARGER PRECIP AREA. CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM...AND TEMPS RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR SNOW. 850 MB AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SUPPORT SNOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF...BUT SURFACE TEMPS WARM JUST ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE STORM TO MIX SOME RAIN IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. I'M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF GUIDANCE SURFACE TEMPS SATURDAY...AS REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTH WINDS AND FALLING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORMAL DIURNAL TREND. HOWEVER POPS TAPERING OFF SATURDAY...AND GIVEN USUAL MODEL DIFFICULTIES WITH TIMING FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MESS WITH TEMPS. DAY 4 DIFFERENCES WOULD ONLY BE SNOW VS RAIN/SNOW MIX. FOR SUNDAY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS DROP BELOW NORMAL. GFS 850 TEMPS LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...AND ECMWF AS USUAL ON THE WARM SIDE. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW QUICKLY WARMS BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS ANOTHER FAST MOVER IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT ORIGINS ARE FURTHER SOUTH. WARM AIR IN PLACE BEFORE ARRIVAL WILL CREATE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS INTO THE 550S. IN THESE OUTER PERIODS...WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO BE SEEN IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW. GFS SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH...WHILE ECMWF FURTHER SOUTH. BELIEVE TEMP TRENDS ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIQUID PRECIP OK...BUT POP VALUES AND TIMING CARRY QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...ALL FORECAST SITES WILL SEE A MIX OF SKY COND FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THRU THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM A LOW AROUND OVC010 UP TO BKN-OVC060-080. VSBY FROM RAINFALL/FG WILL RANGE FROM 3-6SM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SSE TO SW BY 18Z WED...THEN WNW AFT 00Z THURSDAY. ALL SITES SEEING WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS HIR NEAR 35KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR AT VALLEY SITES...CHANCE MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...CHANCE MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .EQUIPMENT... PLEASE NOTE THAT A VERIZON FRAME RELAY OUTAGE AROUND 00Z AFFECTED THE KTYX RADAR. THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE SITE AT THIS TIME...AND TIME OF RESTORATION IS UNKNOWN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ011-016>019. NY...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...JN/LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...BTV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 320 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>010-012-170830- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WINDSOR- 320 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VTZ011-016>019-170830- WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- 320 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Isolated tree and power line damage due to strong winds.
Isolated tree and power line damage due to strong winds.
Isolated tree and power line damage due to strong winds.
Isolated tree and power line damage due to strong winds.
Isolated tree and power line damage due to strong winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Vermont in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Vermont, November 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 265992, 265993, 265994, 265995, 265996.