Tornado and Flash Flood in Texas, June 12 to 13, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THIS REMAINS A COMPLEX FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM NORTH OF KTCC TO KLBL. HOWEVER...THINK THIS FRONT WILL LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. THEREFORE...FEEL MOST CONFIDENT THAT KDHT
AND KGUY ARE THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION. NOT
AS CONFIDENT ABOUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KAMA SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED CB REMARKS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND IT COULD PASS THROUGH KAMA AFTER 14Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TODAY
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD
TIME SHOWING THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM KCAO TO KEHA. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT LOCATION...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KDHT
AND KGUY BRIEFLY BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z...BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A
WARM FRONT AND MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE REGION. THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAMA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
FUELED BY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO KAMA THROUGH 15Z. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
TSRA. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...THE FOCUS IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
FRONT...BEGINNING AS DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COULD DEVELOP
INTO AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF TSRA IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES...THOUGH BEST
GUESS AT THIS POINT IS TEMPO TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 20 AND
03Z...WITH A POSSIBLE LONG DURATION TSRA IMPACT AT KAMA AFTER 03Z
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
ENTER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLE TODAY AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SURGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT
TERM VARY QUITE A BIT. THE LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR AS TO WHERE STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AS LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING AND WEAKENING MON AND TUE. ALONG
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION...TIMING OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN UPPER
FLOW WILL ALSO BE KEY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IMPROVES...SO DOES THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS WARRANTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND SUNDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON MONDAY. WEAK W/SW FLOW WED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. STORMS COULD
OCCUR ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND
WE MAY BE TOO CAPPED. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF
FRONT...AND CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP OCCUR. WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EXCEPT FOR LATER PERIODS.
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY. TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
ABNORMALLY HOT WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS WHEN RH VALUES
MAY DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 20 KTS AND MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

13/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-122100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
417 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...
THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...BOATERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE
READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

SJOHNSON