Wildfire in Texas, January 22, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1212 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

.UPDATE...
RAISED MAX TEMP GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
22/22Z TO 23/02Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING AT KAMA...KDHT AND KGUY. THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LACKING...BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO NEAR DAMAGING WINDS
UNDER VIRGA SHOWERS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AFTER THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE
PANHANDLES.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. S AND SW WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AROUND 15Z...TO 30KTS. GUSTS UP TO 42KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FROM 18Z TO 06Z ACROSS THE REGION. IF SHOWERS DO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. DO TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL BRING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO THE PANHANDLES TODAY. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WITH
PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY TO NEAR THE STATE LINE. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE 18Z TODAY TO 00Z SATURDAY
PERIOD...HOWEVER STILL LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BESIDES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP TODAY...THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
SPEEDS. AFTER CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUN AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND ALSO LOOKING AT THE HIGH WIND DECISION
TREE...DO NOT SEE WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER FOR THE 2 HOUR
OR MORE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. ALSO...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES SHIFTING EAST
AND OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK TONIGHT WHERE DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY
NEXT THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MOIST AND COOLER UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH 20 FT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR HIGHER ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THIS WEEKEND...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
WITH 20 FT WIND SPEEDS 20 MPH OR HIGHER MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER 20 FT
WINDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN LOW TO NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-222200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
534 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJOHNSON