High Wind in Texas, December 15, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.  CNM ALREADY
GUSTING AS WILL THE REST OF THE SITES AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010/

DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE CREATING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW WILL SEE
SOME RECORD HIGHS FALL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FRIGID AIR TO THE
NORTH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AN OPEN TROUGH THAT WILL NOT
MOVE INTO TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY SO THE COLDEST AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL
THEN TO ARRIVE. THE NAM IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING OUT
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT FEEL THIS IS
OVERDONE. OPEN TROUGHS ARE NOT OPTIMAL FOR PRODUCING SNOW AND
RELATIVELY MILD 700 MB TEMPS OF -5C ARE NOT AT ALL LOW ENOUGH FOR
OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. IN ADDITION...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS NON EXISTENT SO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE TO DO
ALL THE WORK. THEREFORE WENT WITH RAIN OR SNOW WORDING WITH ANY
SNOWFALL LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO ACCUMULATE SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT
GET THEIR HOPES UP WITH THIS.

THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT FRIDAY AS WELL WITH VERY COLD AIR
IN PLACE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE TO HELP PUSH TEMPS
UP. SHOULD THE LOW CLOUDS HANG IN THEN TEMPS ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH
FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT IN THE BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BE A GOOD INDICATION OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
ISENTROPIC SUBSIDENCE ONLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
CREATE CLOUDS WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET SATURDAY MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE COULD CAUSE LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT MAY HAVE FALLEN
FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT AMPLIFY MUCH SO THE TROUGH IS
QUICKLY REPLACED WITH ZONAL RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
COLD AIR IN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL BE SHALLOW AND QUICK TO MIX
OUT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK. WENT AT OR ABOVE
GUIDANCE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN
MONDAY. THERE IS ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FRONT SINCE IT IS
MOVING SOUTH UNDER RIDGING ALOFT SO WENT WITH GUIDANCE FOR NOW ON
MONDAY TEMPS.

HENNIG

FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA BUT AS EXPECTED...WINDS
FAILED TO INCREASE EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL NOT
BE THE CASE TOMORROW AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 2O TO 30 MPH IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING CONTINUES AND LOCAL FIRE OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY
TOMORROW WITH NEAR EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS. GOOD RH RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ALLEVIATING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BY REDUCING TEMPERATURES AND WIND
SPEEDS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...
     BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...
     ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-160030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
621 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010 /521 PM MST TUE DEC 14 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND ALL OF WEST TEXAS EXCEPT THE PRESIDIO VALLEY...TERRELL
COUNTY...AND MOST OF BREWSTER COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH OR GREATER...AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND