Hail in South Dakota, May 22, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW OVR SRN ID WITH JET STREAK
NOSING THRU WRN WY. SFC MAPS SHOWS LOW CENTER EAST KIEN WITH TROF
EXTENDING NWD JUST EAST OF A KPHP TO LEMMON LINE. SOME CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN ACRS NERN INTO FAR WRN SD BEHIND THE TROF WHERE CAP HAS
ERODED AND UPR SUPPORT HAS INCREASED WITH APPROACHING JET STREAK.

LATE AFTN/TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS EWD AS CAP SLOWLY
ERODES AND SFC TROF ADVANCES EWD. WITH SFC BOUNDARY HAVING PUSHED
EAST OF ALL BUT OUR SCNTRL SD ZONES...THE BEST SVR THREAT MAY BE
SHIFTING MORE EAST OF OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG
DOES EXIST BEHIND THE TROF INTO WRN SD AND BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SO WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS QUITE YET.
TORNADIC THREAT HOWEVER DOES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY EAST OF OUR AREA. IF
CAP IS TO BREAK ACRS SCNTRL SD WHERE THEY WILL SIT ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SVR STORMS DEVELOP...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVE WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING
OVERHEAD. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW
LATE AFTN STORMS IN NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS AS SE BL FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SERVE UP MORE THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
TAKES AIM AT WRN SD WITH 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION OF 3-5C/HR.
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500J/KG. THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH STREAMS RUNNING HIGH MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH WITH LATER
FORECASTS. NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE THEN LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING LATE MONDAY...BRINGING MORE TSRA.

EXTENDED...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
TROF...WILL KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. COULD SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY AS A DRY SLOT IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

JOHNSON/RUDGE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT SAT MAY 22 2010

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-231300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1113 AM MDT (1213 PM CDT) SAT MAY 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY...AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LEMMON TO RAPID
CITY TO PINE RIDGE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>