Damaging Wind in South Dakota, June 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1256 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA.
LOCALLY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NEBRASKA AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING OFF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

UNSETTLED AND STORMY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. NEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
FURTHER DESTABILIZES AND NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. HIGHEST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE FOUND FROM NORTHEASTERN WY...INTO THE BLACK
HILLS...AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY EARLY EVENING. SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS.

SIMILAR SETUP EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR MONDAY RIGHT NOW. WEAK COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL
APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CANADA AND WEAKENS. SOME
DRIER AIR AND WEAKER ENERGY ALOFT COULD HELP KEEP THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS...TO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

EXTENDED...A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEN PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK....BRINGING A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...AND THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AFTER...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-211300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1059 AM MDT (1159 AM CDT) SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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