Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, August 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
145 PM MDT WED AUG 11 2010

...TRANSITION TO COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATED A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE US WITH SUB-
TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN US. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER OR
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM CA ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT ISOLD TSRA
WERE NOTED UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...MOSTLY IN PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW...AND THEN A RATHER NOTABLE COOL DOWN AS A PATTERN CHG
TAKES PLACE...NAMELY A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE AO.

FOR TNGT...A S/W TROF NEAR NV/UT WILL TRACK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP...LIMITED MOISTURE MEANS
THAT POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW END. HOWEVER...A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS
WAA ACROSS NCNTRL SD/SCNTRL ND...SO THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE TSRA
OVER THE FAR NERN CWA. SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE FROM ERN MT TO
NEAR KY22 BY 12Z.

FOR THU...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE NWRN CWA BY AFTN. THE UPPER PATTERN ALSO WILL BE CHANGING AS A
PV ANOMALY MOVES OVER SWRN ALBERTA. THERE LIKELY WILL BE TWO ROUNDS
OF TSRA...ONE THE MRNG WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND ANOTHER IN THE
AFTN WITH THE FROPA. MLCAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE MLCIN ALSO WILL BE
MINIMIZED AND MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. THUS...WE MAY
SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS AFTER FROPA. ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT OF
LAST YEAR'S MAJOR HAILSTORM...STILL COULD SEE A SEVERE STORM FIRE IN
THE AFTN OVER THE NRN BLKHLS AND STURGIS AREA.

FOR THU NGT...THE WRN US UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT REACHES SERN
WY...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER CNTRL CANADA AND A S/W
TROF OVER AB/ID. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...WITH
ENOUGH Q-G FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

FOR FRI...AS ONE S/W TROF MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NEAR CYS ACROSS NEB/
SD...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR/NE OF KGGW. MODEST Q-G FORCING AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA. ALSO...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTN/EVNG...
RESULTING IN A SEASONABLY COOL FRI NGT AND SAT.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM TROFING DURING
THE WEEKEND TO FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE
90S WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO 15000 FT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
MDT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS STRONG TROF
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 90S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COOLER TEMPERATURES YET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TODAY FOR LOWER
     ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN
     CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.

&&

BUNKERS/RUDGE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
420 AM MDT WED AUG 11 2010

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-121300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
420 AM MDT (520 AM CDT) WED AUG 11 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT...VERY DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>