Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 4, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WOBBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EACH
ONE BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE LIFTED. SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE DEVELOPING SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. LAMP GUIDANCE
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. CURRENT POP
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN LINE AND WILL MAKE FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
BY THIS EVENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AS THE REGION AWAITS THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS
TIME WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHING IT AROUND. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH
OF A TOLEDO TO WARREN LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE
MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES CAN BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
BUT STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE GRIDS.

WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A
NORTHERLY FLOW OF DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY DIP
JUST UNDER SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP MENTION UP ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LEFT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOG THIS MORNING IS MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THEN IT WAS
YESTERDAY AND EXPECT VSBYS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR IN AN HOUR OR
TWO. PESKY AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET NW PA AND FAR NE
OH. THIS LOWER CLOUD COULD BRIEFLY MAKE IT TO KYNG. AT
KERI...EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND
THEN DISSIPATE AS THE STRONG JUNE SUN BEGINS TO WIN OUT. SIMILAR
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT 18Z IS ABOUT THE EARLIEST THAT SHOULD
OCCUR. WILL GIVE ALL SITES A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER. BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT KCLE WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING
SHOWERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME SW BY MID MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW IS AGAIN
PROBABLY AT KERI.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE WITH E TO NE FLOW UNDER 10
KNOTS MOST AREAS.  LOW PRESSURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY.  A TRAILING COLD WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING.  SW TO W FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PICK UP AND WAVES ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH 4 FEET.  ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.  NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  THE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
423 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-050830-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
423 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WOBBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.