Lightning Strike in North Carolina, June 4, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A BIT COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY....WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA IN MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THAN THU...CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND WEAK
UPPER FORCING...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
INTO EARLY EVE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS THAT
HIGH CLOUDS MOVD OVER AREA EARLY TODAY AND KEPT TEMPS DOWN SO
AIRMASS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN. WITH FRZG LVL AROUND
14.5K FT...FIRST GUESS SHOWS IT WILL TAKE STRONG CORES UP OVER 25K
FT FOR SVR STORMS BUT DCAPES ARE LOW AND WBZ HIGH AT 13.5K FT. IN
ANY CASE IT IS STILL PSBL THAT A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SVR LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY EVE. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-LATE EVE AND DIE
OUT OVERNIGHT. MRNG LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVG. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SAT
BUT MODELS SHOW MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
FORCING THRU THE AFTN BUT TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH 80S MTNS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO HELD ON TO CHC
POPS MTNS AND W CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC E ZONES FOR SAT AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...TROFFING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND RIDGING OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND THRU THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN A DRY DAY MONDAY. TSTM
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AS LLVL FLOW
VEERS TO WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...CAUSING PWATS TO DROP
BACK TOWARD CLIMO NORMALS. MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH INSTBY OR
QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND KEEP THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FA. SO WILL BASICALLY STAND PAT ON POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVE...WITH POP DROPPING BELOW 20% BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S MTNS AND U80/L90S PIEDMONT
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WITH
BE MILD SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP INTO THE
50S/L60S MTNS AND M-U60S PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS SHOWN ON THE
ECMWF...GFS AND GEM.  THE ECMWF AND GEM BUILD THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.  EXPECT WAVES OF
ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THIS PATTERN IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.  THE TIMING OF WHEN THESE ARRIVE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE
PRECISE FORECAST AT THAT TIME OF WET OR DRY.  THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TIME BEFORE THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ASSERTIVE LATE IN
THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERN IS ONSET OF SHWRS/TSTMS MUCH
EARLIER TODAY WHICH WILL INCRS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHWRS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SW
AT LESS THAN 10KT BUT VRBL AND GUSTY VCNTY OF STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND LOW CIG/VSBY WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR NOW...EXCEPT
IFR KAVL.

OUTLOOK...LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED SAT BUT LOOK FOR SCT
TSTMS AFTN-EVE. TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT SUN. MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY. DRYING EXPECTED MON WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
TUE-WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
REMAIN A THREAT ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.