In the mid afternoon hours of Monday, July 12th, Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 461 was issued for far western North Dakota. This was in anticipation of thunderstorms developing ahead of a potent short wave trough advecting northeast across the central Rockies and into the Northern High Plains region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
In the mid afternoon hours of Monday, July 12th, Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 461 was issued for far western North Dakota. This was in anticipation of thunderstorms developing ahead of a potent short wave trough advecting northeast across the central Rockies and into the Northern High Plains region. Ahead of this feature, strong moisture advection combined with steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear parameters to create a favorable atmosphere for organized storms.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 463 was issued later Monday evening to include all of west and portions of central North Dakota, as ongoing severe thunderstorms over western North Dakota were expected to continue and advect to the east along and ahead of a frontal boundary stretched across the western Dakotas.
Several severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings were issued. Several reports of large hail, two reports of severe thunderstorm winds, and one confirmed tornado occurred during this episode.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 2:45 PM CST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 345 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...SO HAVE UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT OF A LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AS ITS SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN. CURRENTLY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION HAS RESULTED FROM RETURN FLOW BEHIND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW AT 500 MB HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE DOWN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND IS BRINGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT...IT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY TO TAP INTO MODEL FORECAST CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SO DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY BOWING LINES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING HAS PRODUCED SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THINKING THAT UNLESS WE SEE A LITTLE SOMETHING FIRE WITH MAX HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN THREAT FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WATCH PERIOD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD KEEP CONVECTION ALIVE AND STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS IT PASSES OVER BISMARK AND MINOT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN INCREASES INSTABILITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO ALSO KEEP WINDS ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SEE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 80S WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... HEIGHT FIELDS AMONGST THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD BEYOND SATURDAY. DESPITE THAT STILL A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE FORECASTING TIMING AND DETAILS. FRIDAY...A TRANSITORY BROAD RIDGE LOOKS TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THE DAY...BUT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ALONG SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT HAS SUPPORT ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO NEARLY A ZONAL FLOW COMMENCES ON SUNDAY FOR A DRY DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND UPPER 80S SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AERODROMES KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 09Z-12Z TUESDAY...THEN PASSING THROUGH MINOT AND BISMARCK BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...AND FINALLY REACHING JAMESTOWN KJMS AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AERODROMES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS KISN/KDIK WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY...THEN 06Z-15Z TUESDAY IN KMOT/KBIS...AND 15Z-00Z FOR KJMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .HYDROLOGY...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY SLOW MOVERS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. WE HAVE DRIED OUT SOME MOST AREAS THE LAST WEEK OR SO...BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WILL ADD A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...BPN LONG TERM/AVIATION...SIMOSKO HYDROLOGY...HAMILTON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 445 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-132145- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER- STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN- LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 445 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 /345 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 652 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 NDZ002-009-010-130030- BURKE ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-WILLIAMS ND- 652 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS...NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT... AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIOGA...OR 34 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLISTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... TIOGA... MCGREGOR... TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KINNEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 730 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 NDZ009-010-130115- MOUNTRAIL ND-WILLIAMS ND- 730 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EASTERN WILLIAMS AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT... AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF TIOGA...OR 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSBY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... WHITE EARTH... THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY. KINNEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 751 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 NDZ018-032-033-130130- BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-STARK ND- 651 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUNN...NORTHWESTERN STARK AND SOUTHERN BILLINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT... AT 646 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MEDORA...OR 31 MILES WEST OF DICKINSON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... FRYBURG... BELFIELD... SOUTH FAIRFIELD... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. HEINERT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 753 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 NDZ017-018-032-130145- BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-MCKENZIE ND- 653 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN MCKENZIE...WESTERN DUNN AND NORTHEASTERN BILLINGS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT... AT 650 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOUTH FAIRFIELD...OR 37 MILES NORTHWEST OF DICKINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... GRASSY BUTTE... OAKDALE... KILLDEER... FAIRFIELD... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. HEINERT
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
This tornado touched down in rural Mountrail County. It impacted no structures and so there were no reports of damage. It was rated EF0.
This funnel cloud lasted for two minutes, and did not reach the surface.
Rotating wall clouds were also observed over Dickinson. There were no confirmed reports of funnel clouds.
The strong thunderstorm winds resulted in a quonset door blown in.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Dakota, 2010Warnings in North Dakota, July 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 247576, 247577, 247580, 247581, 247578, 247579, 247582, 247583, 247584, 247585.