Hail in Kansas, July 12, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT MON JUL 12 2010

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HOW HOT IT WILL GET TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS AND
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EAST OF A MCCOOK TO
HILL CITY LINE PER NAM/RUC BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

HOT TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN EXCESS OF
100 DEGREES WITH A FEW AREAS LIKELY AROUND OR HIGHER THEN 105 PER
850 TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY HILL CITY WHERE READINGS COULD BE
CLOSER TO 110 DEGREES. 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
CLIMB AS WELL BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. MAY SEE A STORM OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SFC CONVERGENCE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER...FOR NOW HAVE SILENT POPS. WILL NEED TO WATCH
HEAT INDICES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST AS
RIGHT NOW HAVE HEAT INDICES IN THE 70-73 DEGREE RANGE...JUST BELOW
THE 75 DEGREE CRITERIA FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

FOR SOME...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASE IN 700-300RH MOVING IN AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER ARKANSAS. WILL SHOOT FOR MID 90S
ACROSS THE NORTH...LOW 100S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH THE FRONT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS PRECIP WATER ABOVE NORMAL.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS 700-300 MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LEAD
TO A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW MOVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP WATER WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ALLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MAY SEE A
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST-EAST WHERE A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM NEBRASKA. ON SATURDAY 700-300 MOISTURE
INCREASES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM TOWARD 100 DEGREES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK DRY AS THE UPPER
HIGH SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1134 AM MDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR 18Z TAFS...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT/ OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN GOODLAND AND COLBY AT 17Z. BEST POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION IN GLD TAF FOR TIME BEING. FOR MCK...MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR WITH HEATING WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INCREASING BTWN 20Z AND 00Z. OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS FOG WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THREAT DETERMINED
BY WHAT SIDE OF FRONT AREA IS LOCATED. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE MCK
HAS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT
WHILE GLD SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

JRM

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT MON JUL 12 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1042 AM MDT MON JUL 12 2010 /1142 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A
WRAY TO TRIBUNE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION
TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

STORMS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP AFTER 130 PM MDT (230 PM CDT) ALONG AND
EAST OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM WRAY TO RUSSEL
SPRINGS...WITH STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF A 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO HAVE
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM
CDT).

JRM