A cold front stalled across across central and eastern portions of North Carolina on the 25th of September. In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a closed low pressure was digging across western Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A cold front stalled across across central and eastern portions of North Carolina on the 25th of September. In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, a closed low pressure was digging across western Tennessee. The slow moving upper low would cause a series of low pressure waves to ride along the stalled frontal zone, while also advecting copious amounts of tropical moisture into the region. Central North Carolina received 2 to 5 inches of widespread rainfall on the 26th, but because of ongoing severe drought conditions, no flooding occurred. After a lull on the 27th and 28th, a second upper level low developed over western Tennessee once again. This acted to pull the stationary boundary and moisture conveyor back to the west, as well as pick up remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole. Central North Carolina saw an additional 3 to 6 inches on the 29th and 30th. The combined rainfall of 6 to 10 inches from the 26th through the 30th of September resulted in flashing flooding and minor river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 1:25 AM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 225 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES... THROUGH TODAY: FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE HELD AS IS. SO FAR THE AREA HAS AVOIDED CATASTROPHIC FLOODING... ALTHOUGH STEADY MODERATE RAIN DROPPING A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS PROBLEMS PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS... AND THE ONCE-LOW STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RISING AT A RAPID RATE. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW HAVING JUST PASSED BETWEEN CHS AND GGE... PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE NNW. THE NAM... WHICH APPEARS TO BE DOING BEST WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW... BRINGS IT RIGHT UP THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH AN LCL-TO-FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM... AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF 2.0-2.6" STREAMING TOWARD ERN NC WITH STRONG FORCING ALOFT IN THE FORM OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DPVA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA... ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND KICKS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER WESTWARD... THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE AT RISK THROUGH MID MORNING. WITH THE OBSERVED RAIN RATES... EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. NOTE THAT THE RALEIGH 88D RADAR (KRAX) IS PERFORMING QUITE WELL IN ITS PRECIP ESTIMATES SINCE SWITCHING TO A TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO CANCEL THE WATCH EARLIER THAN ITS CURRENT 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE EVALUATED FURTHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE TRENDED DOWN FROM S TO N THROUGH 18Z AS THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY PUNCHING UP THROUGH SRN GA ARRIVES IN CENTRAL NC. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. CURRENT MUCAPE IS 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE AT 40-50 KTS WITH 250-500 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH... AND THE NAM SHOWS THIS SPREADING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THROUGH 14Z WITH VGP OF 0.25-0.35 AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OVER 45 KTS BACK THROUGH THE TRIANGLE. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT... OBSERVED GUSTS OVER 50 KTS AT BUOY 41004 AND GEORGETOWN SC JUST AHEAD OF AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER BRINGS A CONCERN FOR A SURGE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW'S TRACK. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE WAY OFF. SEE NO GOOD REASON TO ALTER CURRENT HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL STICK WITH HIGHS AROUND 75-81. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE E TN VALLEY. MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL DRYING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FCST FOR THURS EVENING IS CURRENTLY DRY BUT SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE PRECIP AS THE TROF AXIS APPROACHES. WILL DISCOUNT FOR NOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE. FRIDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. COOLER AIR MASS IS SLOW TO ARRIVE SO WITH SUNSHINE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED AND A WET GROUND...A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SOLAR ENERGY ON FRIDAY SHOULD GO TO DRYING THE ATMOS OUT...REDUCING SENSIBLE HEATING SO TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNDER SURFACE RIDGING AND MEAN DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE WELL UNDER AN INCH. CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL AID IN OVERALL STABILITY. THE 12Z GFS DOES FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES...IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOS GUIDANCE LOWS ARE CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES GIVEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND 25KT AT THE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM OVERNIGHT. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES...WARMEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE THICKNESS RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE LOW BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW AS 1335M AND 1340M TOWARD THE TRIAD. SUCH THICKNESSES WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S. THE LAST TIME KGSO (40) AND KRDU (42) HAD A LOW IN THE 40S WAS MAY 10. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A FEW...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE 40S WITH THE COLDER POTENTIAL OFFSET BY SOME MIXING IN THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT...925MB WINDS AT LEAST AROUND 20KT...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER AND NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...IT SEEMS PROBABLE AT THIS POINT THAT A CLOSED LOW OF SOME STRENGTH WILL FORM MORE LIKE THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST DGEX ALLUDE TO...VERSUS THE SHARP BUT MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OF THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS FORECAST LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF...OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH MORE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND OVERALL ISENTROPIC LIFT...SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. INDEED...GFS MOS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALMOST ALL AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND AS SUCH WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF...IF IT WOULD VERIFY...INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS AROUND 00Z MONDAY...SUGGESTING THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY WOULD SEEM TO BE MONDAY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY WHEN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. IF THE FORECAST TREND CONTINUES...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK OVER TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY... IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREDOMINATE MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 12 TO 15Z AS A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH CONTINUES TO OVERRIDE AN INLAND RETREATING COASTAL FRONT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES...FROM RDU EASTWARD...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS BEGINNING AROUND 06 TO 09Z AND WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND 12 TO 15Z AS A STRONG 40 TO 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THE LLWS THREAT WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL...LIFTING TO MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...CBL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 946 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-010200- HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 946 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 687 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. TORNADO WATCH. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. BEFORE GOING TO BED...CHECK LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO READY TO ALERT YOU TO WARNINGS AT NIGHT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-010200- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE- 946 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 PM HEAVY RAIN ENE SPEED 35.97N 77.44W
09/29/2010 U0.00 INCH EDGECOMBE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT
HIGH WATER ON MILL POND ROAD AND NORTH BOWERS ROAD NEAR
THE TOWN OF SPEED.
&&
BLOCKLEAThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:36 UTC.
20 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall of ten to twelve inches resulted in flooding on several roads which include Lancaster Road and New Hope Road.
Approximately ten inches of rain resulted in street flooding in eastern Halifax County. Some roads roads flooded include NC Highway 903 near Hobgood Road and Chestnut Street in Scotland Neck.
Carolina Avenue and Randolph Street were closed due to flash flooding.
Heavy rainfall of four to five inches flooded a neighborhood in the Trinity area of High Point. Two homes were flooded and Access Road was closed due to high water.
Craft Upholstering Company and a vacated home experienced minor flooding when Rich Creek came out of its bank.
Heavy rainfall of four to five inches resulted in minor flooding along South Buffalo Creek. South Buffalo Creek crested at 14.1 feet.
High water was reported across road at Rock Service and Old Stage Roads.
The Rocky Mount 911 center received approximately 25 calls related to minor flooding. Riverside Drive was closed due to flooding.
Linville Road was closed due to flashing flooding.
Loflin Pond Road near Trogdon Pond Road was closed due to flooding.
Trained spotter reported 6 inches of water flowing across NC Highway 109 in Silver Valley.
Flooding was reported along Lucama Road and St. Marys Church Road.
Several secondary roads were closed for a period of time. A portion of Beulah Road between John Mark Road and Boykin Road was washed out.
Several roads were closed in the Mangum area due to flash flooding. Biltmore Drive in East Rockingham also experienced minor flooding.
Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding along East Fork Deep River. The river crested at 14.3 feet.
Street flooding was reported along Wiggins Mill Road near Springhill Church Road, Revell Road, Glory Road and Blalock Road.
Sullivan Drive on the campus of North Carolina State University was closed due to flash flooding.
Pine Street was closed due to high flood waters. The flood waters approached the crawl spaces of several homes.
Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding of Crabtree Creek. Crabtree Creek crested at 12.69 feet.
Rivermeade Drive and Halifax Road near NC Highway 68 was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, September 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 262742, 262747, 262748, 262764, 262765, 262768, 262770, 261000, 262773, 262775, 262784, 262785, 261001, 262828, 262819, 262820, 262822, 262823, 262825, 262826.