Tornado and Flash Flooding in North Carolina, September 27 to 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
825 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND STALL THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY STALLING ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR MORE LOWS TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FCST.
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
UPR LOW WILL CONT TO DROP S TO THE TENN VALLEY OVERNIGHT PRODUCING
DIFL FLOW ALOFT OVER NC. THIS COMBINED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE...
WITH PRECIP WATERS AOA 2 INCHES...AND A STALLED BNDRY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHRA AND A FEW STAR GIVEN WEAK
INSTAB. CURRENT RDR TRENDS AND LATEST MDL GUIDANCE FAVOR INLAND
AREAS SEEING BEST CVRG AND ALREADY HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THIS REGION
WITH LIKELY OVER MOST CSTL SITES. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAK INSTAB HOWEVER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR RDR FOR POSS ROTATION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONT TO BE A GOOD BET...BUT GIVEN LOW STREAM LVLS AND DRY
GROUND SHLD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A LOT OF RAIN INIT. TEMPS SHLD NOT
DROP MUCH PER CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPTS...LOWS ABOUND 70 INLAND TO
LOWER 70S CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND A COMPLEX
PATTERN MAKE FOR A LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST. INITIAL
CLOSED LOW PIVOTS NEAR NORTHERN AL LATE MONDAY THEN MOVES NE
CHANGING THE ORIENTATION OF THE THROUGH AXIS TO NEGATIVE MONDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PULLS INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS NC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR/LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2" WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH WIDESPREAD 2-3
INCHES TOTALS AND LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WEST/LIKELY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY POPS TUESDAY TRAILING OFF TO CHANCE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINNING WITH WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT AS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH CLOSES OFF. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE INTERACTION WITH DISTURBED
WEATHER/MOISTURE IN THE TROPICS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
JUST OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POPS TO
CHANCE BUT THIS IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS TO REDEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE 12Z MODELS ARE TENDING TO CONVERGE ON A
CLOSED SOUTHERN TROUGH SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
WILL TREND TO A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TURNING MUCH COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DOWN TO 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL
LIFT N ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GREATEST
COVERAGE TONIGHT EXPECTED ALONG AND W OF HIGHWAY 17 AFFECT MOST
TAF SITES BUT EWN WILL BE ON THE FRINGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASTIONAL IFR CONDITION...ESP W OF HIGHWAY 17...THEN IFR WILL
LIKELY BE DOMINANT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MON. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WELL WITH LOW
PRES PASSING TO THE W OF THE REGION. GUSTY SLY WINDS TO AROUND
20 KT ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW. GUIDANCE OF LITTLE HELP AS IT IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MAV/MET/LAMP GUIDANCE.

A SFC COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY STALLED NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW
WILL SLIDE SWD FROM THE MID WEST TO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ACROSS GA AND LIFTING IT N ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON. THIS SFC FRONT WILL
LIFT N OF THE REGION MON AS THE LOW MOVES NWD FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE AND STALLING OFF THE
COAST. AN AMPLIFIED SLOW MOVING PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUE. BEYOND TUE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS
MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN BUT ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER PATTERN WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
S AND AREAS OF LOW PRES LIFTING N ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 800 PM SUN...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED W OF THE REGION
NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH S/SELY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
ACROSS THE WATERS AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF
LOW WILL DROP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AND HELP TO DEVELOP A
SFC LOW ACROSS GA THAT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE APPALACIANS MON/MON
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT JUST TO OUR W TO LIFT N OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
MON AND ESP MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 25
KT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE SFC LOW LIFTING N OF THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE WATERS TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS OR JUST E OF THE WATERS WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY CONTINUES MID TO LATE WEEK AS MODELS STILL
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEMS. COULD SEE AN AREA OF LOW
PRES (POSSIBLY TROPICAL) LIFT OUT OF THE GOM AND ACROSS THE
STALLED FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE REGION IF THE GFS/NAM VERIFIES
BETTER WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING TO THE SW. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE EAST
BUT NO CUTOFF LOW.

WITH INCREASING WINDS MON INTO TUE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY
MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BLO 6 FT DURING THE DAY WED. WILL FOLLOW A SWAN/WAVEWATCH
BLEND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY RAISE SCA
BEGINNING MON NIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-271930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
17. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON AND
OFF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.5 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY LONG DRY SPELL BUT URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-271930-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLICK
ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
LEAVING BEHIND A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
17. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON AND
OFF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.5 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE HEAVY
RAINS DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY LONG DRY SPELL BUT URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS OF PERSISTENT DOWNPOURS.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.