Blizzard in North Carolina, February 10 to 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL CREATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
SATURDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S OF THIS FEATURE IS SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALREADY STARTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWFA. THE TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE SNOW AND WIND.

FIRST THE SNOW. IN ADDITION TO STEADILY IMPROVING NW FLOW MOISTURE
TODAY...WITH A DECENT GREAT LAKES CONNECTION...UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
WILL ALSO TRAVERSE WRN NC. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE TYPICAL
NW FLOW PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT VERY STRONG FLOW ALONG WITH THE UPPER
JET SUPPORT COULD PUSH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EWD INTO
THE PIEDMONT ALONG INTERSTATE 40 TODAY. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE CONTAINED MAINLY WITHIN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREA...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS NOT
TREMENDOUS WITH THIS EVENT...THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE NW FLOW
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY IN THE FLOW...SHOULD PRODUCE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 OR 6 INCHES NEAR THE TN BORDER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE WARNING AREA.

WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DECENT MODEL
CONSENSUS EXISTS ON 850 MB WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 50 KT BY 12Z THIS
MORNING...WITH H85 MAXIMUM FLOW IN THE COLD ADVECTION POSSIBLY
REACHING 60 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
TREMENDOUS DOWNWARD OMEGA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY FRONTOGENESIS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING JUST EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. WITH 70 KT WINDS AT 700 MB BY 18Z TODAY...AND 100 KT AT
500 MB...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL BE FANTASTIC DURING PEAK
MIXING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THE HIGH WIND THREAT IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WHERE APPLICABLE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ALREADY UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FROM TOCCOA TO ANDERSON TO
SPARTANBURG TO ROCK HILL...WITH A TIER OF ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN PIEDMONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE WARNING AREA COULD
BE REMINISCENT OF MARCH 7 2004...WITH WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN NC. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME MINUS
5 C WIND CHILL VALUES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR BOTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WARNING PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERLAP INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. SCT SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN NC MTNS THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP DRYING
ALOFT...WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
CLOUDINESS. MTN WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE GUSTY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LLVL
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES FAIRLY CHILLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN SOME REBOUND IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND
INCREASE INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM 5 DEGREES
ABOVE TODAY/S FORECAST VALUES. REMAINING NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SKY COVER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ADVANCE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS AND COOL LLVL THICKNESS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI MORNING. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING STEADILY FROM LOW MORNING
TEMPERATURES. I WILL FORECAST VALUES ONLY A DEGREE OR SO FROM
THURSDAY/S VALUES.

HPC PREFERS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET FRI NIGHT AND SAT. BY THIS
TIME...A CLOSED LOW THAT ORIGINATED OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE DESERT
SW WILL OPEN TO A S/W AND TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHORE OF GULF
AND ACROSS THE FL. THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A PERIOD OF Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL FORM WELL NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS NE GA AND THE SC UPSTATE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. MODEL QPF IS LESS THAN A .10 OF AN
INCH...BUT COMPARES WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
NAM...UKMET...GEM...SREF PLUME QPF. I WILL FAVOR CHC POPS MAINLY
ACROSS NE GA...SC UPSTATE...AND NC ZONES SOUTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING DURING THE QPF...YIELDING
A TOTAL -SN EVENT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THE LOW AND
UPPER FORCING WILL DEPART AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...I WILL END POPS
QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...STARTING 00Z SUNDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
AND NOTHING GOING ON IN THE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT TIME.  GOING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A CUT OFF 500MB LOW
ROUGHLY OVER ILLINOIS WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT FASTER.  BOTH OF
THESE MODELS ARE VIGOROUS WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS
TENNESSEE.  IN COMPARISON TO THE GEM...WHICH ROTATES THIS CUT OFF
LOW FEATURE FROM KANSAS TO ARKANSAS LATER...00Z MONDAY TO 12Z
MONDAY...AND THEN FADES IT OUT NEAR OUR AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY.
STICKING WITH A COMBINATION OF GFS AND ECMWF...ONCE THE CUT OFF LOW
IS PASSING NEAR OUR AREA WHICH WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
TEND TO LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN LATER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  UPPER
TROFINESS CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL TO END THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED UP VERY QUICKLY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT
OR BETTER BY DAYBREAK. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT OR BETTER DEVELOPING WITH
DEEPER MIXING. SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT GUSTS THIS STRONG IN
THE TAF FOR NOW. TOWER PERSONNEL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WINDS TODAY
IN CASE TOWER EVACUATIONS BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO HIGH WINDS.

AT KAVL...RETURNING NW FLOW MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD
MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND A
SNOW SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...AS
GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 45 KT
LIKELY WITH MIXING BY MIDDAY. TOWER PERSONNEL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS A SAFETY PRECAUTION.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN STRENGTHENING NW FLOW COLD ADVECTION. WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT
ARE ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT WITH DEEPER
MIXING BY MIDDAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AT KHKY. TOWER PERSONNEL SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS A SAFETY PRECAUTION.

OUTLOOK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS DRIER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-501-503-505.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ035>037-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>010-110815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
310 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-501-503-505-110815-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
310 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ011>014-019-110815-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
310 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1148 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...RISK OF BLACK ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY MORNING...

ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON ROADWAYS IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL FREEZE AND BECOME BLACK ICE...CREATING A
HAZARD TO MOTORISTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND
SLOW DOWN AND HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE STEERING WHEEL TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE IF YOUR TIRES MAKE CONTACT WITH PATCHES OF
ICE.

DEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S CLAYTON             34.85N 83.40W
02/09/2010                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THREE TREES REPORTED DOWN BY GUSTY WINDS IN THE
            CLAYTON-TIGER AREA. ONE TREE FELL ONTO A POWERLINE AND
            SPARKED A SMALL FIRE.

&&

NED