Wildfire in North Carolina, April 7, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT WED APR 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT EAST
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY...
BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A SLOW
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODELS DRIVE AN UPPER
TROF FROM THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH
SUNRISE...SO THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT CONVECTION OVER WRN TN WILL
DIE BEFORE IT REACHES THE MTNS TONITE. THE MODELS AND 09Z SREF KEEP
THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA DRY...SO HAVE CUT THE POP FOR THE
TONITE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN A BIT MILDER OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD
COVER THICKENS.

ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW A MODERATELY FORCED COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE CHARACTER OF THE FORCING SEEMS TO
SUPPORT A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WOULD ORGANIZE IN THE LATE
MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION SHOULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT...SO A
CATEGORICAL POP LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE LATEST RUNS DEVELOP A 50KT
SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENOUGH
SHEAR...PERHAPS 35 TO 45 KT...AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...PERHAPS
200 TO 300 M2/S2...TO PROVIDE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY SEEN ON THE 12Z NAM CAN BE
REALIZED... SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...WE SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR
LINES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS. WE HAVE CERTAINLY DONE MORE
WITH LESS...SO THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
THE PIEDMONT BEING IN A WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE DAY. THE
PRIME TIME WINDOW WOULD BE 18Z TO 00Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSES
THE REGION. THE DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
MORE OF A LID ON HIGH TEMPS...SO HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST TEN DEGREES
COOLER.

EXPECT THE LINE OR LINES OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD AND PERHAPS MAKE
IT EAST OF I-77 AND CHARLOTTE BY 00Z...SO ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF
CATEGORICAL POP WAS KEPT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE EVENT SHOULD
WIND DOWN BY 03Z...AND THEREAFTER WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AROUND 06Z. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA EARLY...
FRIDAY SETS UP AS A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRYING
W/NW WIND RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES...WHILE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING ABOUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WHERE A WEAK NW/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME THAT PRECIP
WOULD FALL AS SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DRY WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
OOZES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE MARKED BY THE
RETURN OF THE WARMTH...AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW (WESTERN TROUGH/
EASTERN RIDGE) BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. ALTHOUGH NEXT WEEK/S RIDGE
DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS ANOMALOUS AS THIS WEEK/S...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL RETURN. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF THE 15-20 DEGREE DEPARTURES
OBSERVED THIS WEEK...NEXT WEEK/S SHOULD BE MORE IN THE +5 TO +10
RANGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO SPELL AN ABSENCE OF PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT LEAST 12 MORE HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY THICKENING CIRRUS AND A GUSTY SW WIND...THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE SITUATION GETS TRICKIER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. AM NOT READY TO
JUMP ON THE GFS BANDWAGON AND INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT 09Z AND
PREFER TO TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE SLOWER NAM. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERED INITIALLY...THEN DEVELOPING
AN MVFR CEILING AS CONVECTION POPS UP WITH MORNING HEATING. THAT
WOULD PUT AN MVFR CEILING BEGINNING IN THE 13Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE MVFR CEILING OUT OF KCLT BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
LINE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z OR
SO...THUS ONLY KAVL AND KAND GET A MENTION OF CB CLOUDS AND VICINITY
SHOWERS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. AM THINKING THAT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TRAILING RAIN IS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILING/VIS WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT. THIS WILL NOT APPEAR IN THIS SET OF TAFS...BUT SHOULD BE
PLANNED FOR ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK...A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 03Z
FRIDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER THAT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM
FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-080900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
459 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-080900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
459 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME
UNSTABLE ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ