Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, April 7, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW
STRETCHED FROM JUST EAST OF KBPK...TO RUSSELVILLE...TO MENA. FOR KHRO
AND KBPK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED. WINDS WILL BE LESS
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LEFT SOME TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS IN FOR JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SCATTERING OUT AND
CLEARING ON THE BACK EDGE. HOWEVER BROUGHT SOME LOWER CEILINGS
BACK AFTER 01Z ASSOCIATED THE MAIN TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

AS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EXPECT VCTS WITH BETTER
CONVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. MVFR...WITH
TEMPO IFR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT WED APR 7 2010/

UPDATE...
CDFNT WAS LOCATED OVR NWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. STARTING TO SEE SCTD
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FORM ALONG THE BNDRY. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FROPA
CONT TO SLOLY INCRS...WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON OVR CNTRL AND SRN
AR. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVR THE FA HAS SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS SOMEWHAT THIS MRNG...BUT EXPECT SOME BINOVC THIS AFTN AHEAD
OF THE FNT.

STILL LOOKING AT CONVECTION BCMG MORE ORGANIZED DURG THE AFTN AS
THE FNT MOVES EWD...WITH A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY FORMING.
DAMAGING WINDS RMN THE PRIMARY THREAT... WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLD TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS TREND HANDLED
WELL AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR POPS.

DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN ACRS ERN AR THIS MRNG. UPSTREAM OBS INDC THAT
SPEEDS WL RMN BLW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA...SO OPTED TO CANCEL THE
ADVY FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE FA. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 7 2010/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE
DISSIPATED...AND ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE
NORTH AND WEST. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINE. HAVE INCLUDED TSRA AT
KLIT...AND KPBF...AND KLLQ. THINK THAT KHOT WILL BE JUST WEST OF
THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT...AND KEPT SHRA THERE. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AFTER THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  47  63  38 /  60  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  49  66  40 /  70  50   0   0
HARRISON AR       68  40  60  36 /  30  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  48  65  39 /  60  20   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  50  66  40 /  70  50   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  54  66  41 /  80  80  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  44  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  42  60  37 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  48  64  39 /  80  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  66  41 /  80  70  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  44  64  38 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  48  65  39 /  80  60  10   0
STUTTGART AR      73  51  66  41 /  80  70  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-STONE-
WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED APR 7 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...OR EAST OF A MURFREESBORO...TO MORRILTON...TO
SALEM LINE. THIS AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ALSO...STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

ARZ023-024-031>033-039-071845-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-PERRY-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
100 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLEBURNE...CONWAY...FAULKNER...
PERRY...VAN BUREN AND WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MENIFEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WOOSTER...GREENBRIER...GUY...
QUITMAN...ROSE BUD...GREERS FERRY LAKE AND HEBER SPRINGS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

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