Hail in New York, May 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY...EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 REMAINS UP UNTIL 9 PM FOR ORANGE
COUNTY IN NY...AND PASSAIC COUNTY IN NJ.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE NJ/PA BORDER WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR SCT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CELLS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THOSE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MULTICELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

A DEEP-LAYERED NNW FLOW ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION WILL
STEER SOME OF THESE CELLS TOWARD THE NYC METRO AREA...BUT DO
EXPECT THESE CELLS TO DISSIPATE IN THE STABLE MARINE AIR THIS
EVENING.

A REMNANT MCS OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NRN NY STATE.

DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW CT AND WESTERN LI.

ONCE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...NEARLY SEASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FOR FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TRACKS SE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND SEA
BREEZES EACH AFT. STRONG MID LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY
CONVECTION THRU AT LEAST EARLY SAT.

PRE-FRONTAL TROF MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LATE SAT AFT
AND EVE. HOWEVER...WARM HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LACK OF DYNAMICS WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. A LONE CAP BUSTER COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. A DEEP-LAYERED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK ANY CELLS FROM NW TO SE.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ON SUN
AND BUILDING HEIGHTS...WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND.

FROM TIME TO TIME THERE WILL BE EPISODES OF CLOUD COVER FRI-SAT
DUE TO DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES COMING AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE.

PREFERRED 12Z NAM WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NE ON SUN...THUS
SENDING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH
THE RIDGE AND THUS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...KEEPING IT TO THE
NORTH.

FRI AND SAT WILL FEATURE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ABOVE NORMAL ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY. POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S OVER LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT TO THE MIDDLE 80S OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NYC...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. FAVORED THE ONSET
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...WITH
THE GFS TYPICALLY BEING A BIT TOO FAST WITH APPROACHING FRONTS.
AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO EXIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS WITH CLOUDS BEING
MORE NUMEROUS. A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING CIG FORECAST ACROSS NYC AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WITH A STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS LI AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE WEST. REMOVED CB
GROUP FROM KLGA AND KJFK BUT ENHANCED THREAT FROM KSWF KEWR AND
KTEB. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT JET ROUTES
INTO THE NYC TERMINALS AFT 20Z BUT TSTMS MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF
KEWR AND KTEB. ANY TSTM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE SOUTH AS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IF TSTM DEVELOPS NEAR OR PASSES OVER TERMINALS. E TO SE
WIND ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF. SEA BREEZE ON LI ENHANCING
SE COMPONENT AT KJFK AND KISP. DRIER CONDS ARE EXPECTED THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     27/20Z 16006KT
     27/21Z 16006KT
     27/22Z 15005KT
     27/23Z 13005KT
     28/00Z 12007KT

KJFK HOURLY WIND FORECAST IN SUPPORT OF RUNWAY 31L/13R CLOSURE ALL
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     27/20Z 13011KT
     27/21Z 12011KT
     27/22Z 09010KT
     27/23Z 10009KT
     28/00Z 10007KT

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI-TUE...VFR...BUT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA DROPPED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. BUOYS ALL BELOW 5 FT WITH
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE OVERDONE BY A FOOT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SWELLS FROM LOW PRES
WELL OFF THE SE COAST DIMINISHING.

OTHER THAN POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 25 KT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ALL MARINE ZONES. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST. WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BE FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST WHERE AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO AN INCH...ARE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES WITH THE FULL MOON THIS EVENING AND
TIDAL DEPARTURES RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS JUST BEING REACHED DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING...ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK
BAYS AND INTO NEW YORK HARBOR. LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS
WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL DEPARTURES WITH DRAINAGE
BEING HAMPERED DURING LOW TIDE.

THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ALSO PRODUCE RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072-074>077-080.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...DW/MAS
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

NJZ005-011-281000-
ESSEX-UNION-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

      COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ006-NYZ072-074>077-080-281000-
HUDSON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

      COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002-004-NYZ067-281000-
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ003-NYZ069-281000-
BERGEN-ROCKLAND-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NYZ068-070-071-073-078-079-081-281000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-281000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.