Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, May 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION. NO CHANGE TO THE PUBLIC DISCUSSION
SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE FA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS IS SOMEWHAT DETECTED BY
SFC PRESSURE BUT BETTER DEFINED BY TEMP GRADIENT. RADAR WAS PPINE
FOR THE MOMENT BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MUCH
LIKE 48 HOURS PREVIOUS (MON NGT TUE AM) WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED SIMILAR TO THIS ONE.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
GOOD CHANCES FOR TSRA'S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE/DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE
WEEK. FRIDAY THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK OPEN
OR CLOSED 500 MB LOW WITH THE 12Z WED ECMWF AND A OPEN WAVE WITH THE
00Z THU GFS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SREF. FOR THIS REASON MAY HAVE TO
EXPAND POPS NORTHWARD A BIT FOR FRIDAY. AS WITH PREVIOUS AFD SAT
LOOKS TO BE A PRIME DAY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEING IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE WEATHER. HOWEVER ALONG THE TN BORDER
AND LBL AREA COULD SEE SOMETHING POP UP IN THE AFTN OR PROPAGATE OUT
OF TN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KY
AT BEST IN THE PAH FA. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST
SOUTH OF KY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING ITS
INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTH WILL OPT TO LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. BUT MAY HAVE TO REASSESS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE CB AND VCTS QUALIFIERS IN AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE NORTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
401 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
401 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PULSE UP TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR POINTS NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THURSDAY. A STRAY STORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A FRONT STALLS OUT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR POINTS NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.