Strong Wind in New York, June 6, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
306 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG...A LIFTED INDEX AROUND -3C...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
45 KTS. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE REGION THROUGH 8 PM.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN PA AND WILL
BE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 5PM-6PM...AND THEN
THROUGH EASTERN PARTS BETWEEN 8PM-9PM. 2 LINES OF STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THE SECOND WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. SINCE THESE LINES ARE FAIRLY
THIN AND GIVEN 60 KT WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND 70+ KT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG...BUT
FAST AND SHOULD RACE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY.

SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 15-25 MPH WITH 35 MPH
GUSTS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NW AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN 5-10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

WILL KEEP COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT UP FOR ATLANTIC-FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO PROVIDE MUCH COOLER
AND DRYER AIR FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON MON WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. THIS WILL REPRESENT AN OVER 10 DEGREE DROP
IN TEMPS FROM SUNDAY AND AN OVER 20 DEGREES DROP IN DEWPOINTS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT...THEN LOW PRES DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION...BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH MAY KEEP A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE FCST THU NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS WARM HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-
UPPER 80S...AND WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS/TS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHWESTERN NJ AND INTO PA. BASED ON
POSITION/MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE OF STORMS...DELAYED TS ACTIVITY
OVER NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS TO A 19Z-21Z WINDOW. WHEN STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50KT ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

AHEAD OF THE STORMS...SW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AN INVERSION IS NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL VERY LATE SO
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING.
COASTAL SEA BREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

KJFK HOURLY WIND FORECAST IN SUPPORT OF RUNWAY 31L/13R CLOSURE
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC

     06/18Z 20017G27KT
     06/19Z 22016G28KT
     06/20Z 23016G27KT
     06/21Z 25017G27KT
     06/22Z 27016G26KT
     06/23Z 28015G25KT
     07/00Z 29015G25KT

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE...HIGH PRES AND VFR.
WED...LOW PRES TRACKS S OF LONG ISLAND. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE LATE WED
INTO EARLY THU.
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND STRONG
S-SW WINDS WILL TURN W-NW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING ON ALL WATERS EXPECT THE
OCEAN. THINK WINDS REMAIN UP ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO...AND SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER 5 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. WILL
CANCEL SCA FOR LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/BAYS AT 9 PM...AND WILL CANCEL
SCA FOR OCEAN AT 6 AM MONDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR FLAGS ON THE WATERS IS
LATE WED THROUGH THU AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH QPF POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF WILL BE
LATE WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BS/KCS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

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