Damaging Wind in Nevada, June 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
240 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SILVER
STATE TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SKIES WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA...DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
TIGHTLY WOUND VORT MAX COMING ASHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. THIS 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WITH A SURFACE TO 700MB CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING FROM
TONOPAH TO THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS. PWAT VALUES WILL SURGE TO .8"
TODAY TO THE WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR OVER WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TODAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY FROM BATTLE MOUNTAIN EAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE BY MIDDAY...AS MOISTURE STREAMS EASTWARD. FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NORTHERN NYE...ACROSS
LANDER & EUREKA COUNTIES...AND INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THESE
AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MORE SUN TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDEX VALUES AROUND
40KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...AS THE 500MB SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NYE AND
WHITE PINE COUNTY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY. ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS OVER THE NEXT 48HRS...WITH THE
WARMEST WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WHITE PINE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD RESULTING
IN H7 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 13 TO 17 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PLUS 16 TO 18 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S SUNDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY /THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK/. STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES DURING NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAINLY OVER ELKO COUNTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A THIRD
TO HALF INCH WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS MENTION OF SCHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SAID TROUGH
THAN EITHER THE ECMWF/GEM THUS WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND
MENTION SCHC POPS AGAIN MAINLY FOR ELKO COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN KEEP IT DRY WITH A COOLING TREND FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HUMBOLDT/LANDER/WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA FROM 18Z-06Z. THEREAFTER ISOLATED SHWRS MAINLY OVER
ELKO/EUREKA/NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS FROM NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY...ACROSS LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES...AND INTO WESTERN ELKO
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET ACROSS ALL
AREA...EXCEPT WHITE PINE COUNTY WERE DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL BE IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY BELOW
.10". DRIER WX WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...WERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

95/89/89