High Wind and Strong Wind in Nevada, April 2, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PDT FRI APR 2 2010

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT AS A THERMAL GRADIENT
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE...LEADING TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AS THEY BOTH SHOW THE 120+ KT JET OVER LASSEN COUNTY CA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NV BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH 700 MB WEST WINDS OF 50-60KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DECENT PRECIP LOADING ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CREST WILL MOST LIKELY SUPPORT A MOUNTAIN WAVE
PROFILE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS
EVENING. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
OCCUR CWA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT DURATION WARNING LEVEL
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
SIERRA ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY/WARNING
PRODUCTS AS WRITTEN.

THE JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE OVER THE SIERRA TONIGHT AND
INCREASE SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NV WHICH WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE
WINDS...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME STAYS WEST OF THE CREST. FOR
TAHOE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL WITH 6
INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. MONO COUNTY WILL RECEIVE EVEN LESS WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET AND UP TO 4 INCHES ABOVE.

WEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST. THE JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CWA WHILE NEWEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...SO REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SIERRA.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ROTATING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF AK. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A MORE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...INCREASING QPF OVER THE SIERRA. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE ASSOCIATED JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FORCING TO ENHANCE SPILLOVER. THIS PRECIP SUPPORT INTO
WESTERN NV WOULD THEREFORE HINDER DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENT. INITIAL
INVESTIGATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS OF
WESTERN NV. STAY TUNED. LABELLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPPER LOW EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN CA/NV MONDAY...AS THE MAJORITY OF
THE JET DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT. 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE DOWN
BETWEEN -10 AND -12C...SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DOWN AT ALL VALLEY
FLOORS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES AS WE SEE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

AS WE GET INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COLD NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOUNCING BACK TOO
QUICKLY...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING EACH DAY TUE-WED-THU.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR TUE-WED WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTH TO EAST FLOW.
TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY THOUGH...AS WE START
TO SEE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW TO
THE PAC NW.  HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

KRNO...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM 19-02Z WITH GUSTS TO
50KT LIKELY. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...WITH LLWS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTN.

KTRK/KTVL...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SIERRA TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS KRNO. PEAK GUSTS EXPECTED UP TO 40KT THIS
AFTN. SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE IN AFTER 21-23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ071-073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

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