High Wind in Nebraska, October 26, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
339 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.  LIKEWISE...THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE SURFACE LOW
WAS OVER MINNESOTA.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AND
WINDS AT 700 MB WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KNOTS OVER THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE GUSTED FROM 35 AND 45 MPH OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH PARTS OF THE CWA.  WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING TODAY...WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE AROUND 50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
CLOSER TO THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.  HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN WYOMING...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY JUST BE BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA LEVELS.  THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE TODAY.  SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY BE
AIDED BY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 300 MB JET TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA.  ALTHOUGH DRIER THAN MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STILL
BE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER THE WEST AND PERHAPS THE NORTH
PARTS OF THE CWA.  SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THOSE AREAS
TODAY WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN ON MONDAY.  HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DRIER WEATHER.  THE
WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED
FOR THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -6C AND -9C.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THIS FORECAST AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN IN GENERAL
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE LEESIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THURSDAY AND FURTHER SO ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THE CWA IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. WINDS DONT
LOOK HILITE CRITERIA AT THIS STAGE AS THIS WILL BE GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH PRODUCE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
ROCKIES. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES AGAIN
BETWEEN MODELS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF
DIGS A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE GFS RESOLVES A SMALLER-SCALE OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY USHERING IN MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF...WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
LOW...MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND LONGER DURATION
WINDS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SO SHOWERS COULD LINGER LONGER.
THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO THEN BUILD BACK IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
THE SNOWY RANGE WILL REMAIN OBSCURED TODAY.  SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 45 KNOTS TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS COMMON. MOUNTAIN WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE LEE OF THE SNOWY
RANGE AND LARAMIE PEAK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH THAT
TIME BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY BE
FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR NEZ002-
     NEZ003-NEZ095-NEZ096.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR NEZ019-
     NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RJM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
354 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

WYZ103>106-109-110-115>117-261500-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-LARAMIE VALLEY-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MUDDY GAP...MEDICINE BOW...BORDEAUX...
RAWLINS...SINCLAIR...HANNA...ARLINGTON...ELK MOUNTAIN...LARAMIE...
VEDAUWOO...BUFORD...PUMPKIN VINE...HORSE CREEK...HARRIMAN...
WHITAKER
354 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AT 330 AM...WEST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH IN MANY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 45 MPH. AT THAT TIME THE HIGHEST WIND GUST WAS 41 MPH AT
ARLINGTON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA AFTER
8 AM.

TRAVELERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND SUDDEN GUSTS. THOSE
WITH LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE STRONG WINDS.

WEILAND

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