Flood in Nebraska, March 6 to 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CST SAT MAR 6 2010

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TOMORROW BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS COULD FLIRT WITH MVFR...BUT
WILL KEEP THEM IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. LOW
CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT SOME BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SAT MAR 6 2010/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF LITTLE THINGS IN THIS
TIME PERIOD BUT NO REAL HUGE FORECAST ISSUE.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CHURNING IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE HASTINGS CWFA IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW ON THE BOTTOM SIDE
OF THE LOW. SOUTHERN CWFA HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH SUNNY ALL DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S...WHILE A LITTLE SUN HAS
POKED THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE...AND SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY ALL
DAY NORTH. TEMPERATURES DROPPED ACCORDINGLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A RESULT.

MODELS TAKE THE UPPER LOW PRETTY MUCH EAST. THERE HASN/T BEEN
MUCH PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE...BUT A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
DRIFT AND A LITTLE BIT OF WRAPAROUND COULD GRAZE THE NORTHEAST
CWFA WITH SHOWER OR TWO THIS EVENING. INCLUDED THAT IN THE GRIDS
TO LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DROP OFF...AND BE NEARLY CALM OVER THE WESTERN CWFA BY DAWN. HAVE
ADDED A BIT OF FOG THERE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM/SREF DO NOT SUGGEST
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT THICK WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THE LOWER VISIBILITIES
MAY WORK INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RECENT RAIN/WET GROUND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY ISN/T LOOK TOO
BAD WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND SOME
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE LIKELY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER IS SHAPING UP JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ENOUGH TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC DOES
GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS LITTLE/IF ANY.
LOW LEVEL DOES START TO SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BUT
MID LEVELS SEEM SOMEWHAT DRY...AND MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A DRIZZLE
START TO THIS EVENING THAN RAIN. FOR NOW...CUT THE RISK OF RAIN
WAY BACK IN THE EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER RISK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 0.05 AT THIS
POINT BEFORE DAWN MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND CONTINUE THE
SNOW MELT/THAW FOR THE CWFA.

LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL GFS...AS WELL AS THE EC ALL ADVERTISE A
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAA WILL BRING WIDE
SPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MOST
TROUBLESOME IS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH DEVELOPS
TO THE NORTH / NORTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AROUND MIDDAY
MONDAY. QPF FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...RESPOND WITH A 12-HOUR PRECIP BULLS EYE (ENDING AT 00Z
TUESDAY) NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC THEN DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND STALLS
THE DRY AIR FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...KEEPING
OUR CWA WITH ANOTHER 0.5" TO 0.75" OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN MAY SHIFT
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...MODEL CONSISTENCY THROUGH
THE PAST FEW DAYS CERTAINLY SUGGEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL SEE
HEAVY RAIN. ULTIMATELY THE LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED BY WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND SETS UP THUS
ENHANCING STRONG OMEGA ALREADY IN PLACE DUE TO WAA. DPDT CHARTS
INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY TREND OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH PAST
FEW DAYS...WHICH CERTAINLY MEANS WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA WILL BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS OUR
SOUTH / SOUTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
EC INDICATE MUCAPES RISING AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCES...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AS A 40-50 KT LLJ IS PROJECTED BY BOTH MODELS TO NOSE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

FORECAST BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING AS
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING EASTWARD TO END THE WEEK. IF THIS VERIFIES WE ARE
CERTAINLY IN FOR A WET...CLOUDY AND COOL WEEK WITH TIGHT DIURNALS.
INHERITED FORECAST WAS ALREADY TRENDING THIS WAY AND THE ONLY
CHANGES MADE TODAY WERE TO ENHANCE THIS LINE OF THINKING. HAVE
LINGERED POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE TO
LINGER POPS ANOTHER PERIOD OR TWO IF THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS THE ADJUSTMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CERTAINLY IF THE MID LEVEL LOW
STALLS OUT LATER NEXT WEEK...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO FUNNEL DOWN INTO OUR AREA. WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER
THAN THE EC...THE EC STILL ADVERTISES SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MAINTAINED A LIGHT
RAIN / SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LIGHT RAIN
/ SNOW MIX ACROSS ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 PM CST SAT MAR 6 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
314 PM CST SAT MAR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK. IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES....A COMBINATION OF
RECENT SNOW MELT AND THE STILL FROZEN GROUND COULD CREATE AREAS OF
FLOODING.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOUP RIVER BASIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA....WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOW LAND
FLOODING DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND ICE ACTION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)