Hail in Nebraska, July 12, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.  A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE IS NOT
HIGH...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE WORDING
IN THE GRIDS. ANY STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING
SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT WILL COUNT ON THE STORMS DIMINISHING
AS THE WAVE PASSES AND RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
COULD CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND
HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE GRIDS.

TUESDAY WILL BE HOT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RISING TO +23C IN THE
NORTHEAST TO +30C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HOT
CONDITIONS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BESIDES THE
HEAT...THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN AND THAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE SUBTLE WAVES EXPECTED TO CROSS IN THE
UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TOWARDS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL BE VERY WARM ALOFT WITH H7 TEMPERATURES OF
+14 TO +15C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET THEN INCREASES
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET
QUICKLY SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD...SO RAIN FORECAST
CERTAINTY TIMING AND COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SINCE WEAK WAVES IN THE
FLOW ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT.
HOWEVER...THE ZONAL FLOW PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

LATEST RUNS SEEM TO BE SLOWING FRONT DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY...SO
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HOT
AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE
BIG QUESTION AFTER THURSDAY WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP. IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SUPPRESSED. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SO USED BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
EXITED KGRI...AND THOUGH ANOTHER SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE CHANCES APPEAR SMALL ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE COULD MOVE EAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCES OF
THOSE REACHING KGRI APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT PUT IN THE FORECAST.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. WILL NOT CARRY A MVFR CEILING AT
THIS POINT...BUT WILL GO SCATTERED AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
333 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM ORD TO HEBRON IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S FOR HIGHS.
THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105 ON TUESDAY. THE HOT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO HEBRON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)