Heat in Missouri, July 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.UPDATE...
REVISION TO 12Z TUESDAY ROUTINE TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUSLY ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010/
FORECAST REMAINS QUITE TRICKY AS THE NRN HALF OR SO OF OUR AREA
CONTINUES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...WITH
MCS AFTER MCS COMING DOWN THE PIKE FROM IA/MO/IL. SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WED..ESP N OF A
CARBONDALE IL TO CALHOUN KY. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY WE RECEIVE TODAY...COULD BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MAY BE A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO KY/IL LATER
TODAY TOO...AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH MAY SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FURTHER SW INTO SE MO...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE...SUPPRESSING STORM CHANCES AND HELPING
TO HEAT THINGS UP. IN FACT...THERE SEEMS TO BE POOLING OF HIGHER
SFC DEW POINTS /MID 70S/ IN SE MO THIS MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT OFFER MUCH HOPE OF DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO 105
OR SO...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A PIEDMONT TO BLOOMFIELD TO NEW MADRID MO
LINE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR WED AS WELL.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL FINALLY FLEX ITS
MUSCLE THU/FRI...LEADING TO AN EXPANSION OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AND A REDUCTION IN MCS/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA. GOOD
CHANCE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HEAT ADVISORIES AREA WIDE BY THAT
TIME FRAME. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SLIDE SE TOWARD THE REGION...AND THUS WILL
HAVE SOME CHANCY POPS OVER OUR N/NW COUNTIES. CHANCES OF THE FRONT
MAKING IT THROUGH THE REGION APPEAR SLIM THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR KCGI AND KPAH...STARTED WITH MID/HIGH VFR CLOUD DECKS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF DECAY CONVECTIVE LINE...BUT DID ADD A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 14-16Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE AT KCGI/KPAH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR KEVV AND KOWB...STARTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION...EVENTUALLY
MOVING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. I DID ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE
MOST LIKELY PERIODS FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BUTLER-CARTER-NEW MADRID-RIPLEY-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1010 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
930 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER MOST ALL OF THE HEARTLAND. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAT INDEX WILL APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF
105 DEGREES TODAY.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 105 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.