Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN OF
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH IMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SHRTWVS
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAS ENTERING WI FM MN.
INITIAL STORMS IN THAT AREA BEING HELD BACK BY CLDS EARLIER IN THE
DAY...BUT SOME ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED
RECENTLY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEARING DRY ADIABATIC SO THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS COMING IN FM THE W. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING SWD FROM UPPER MICHIGAN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR NE. THE 12Z RAOB AT GRB HAD A FZG
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET...BUT THAT SHOULD BE LOWERING AS MID-LVL
JET MVS IN FM THE W. WITH SBCAPE VALUES AT AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
MODERATE SHEAR WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...SVR HAIL WL ALSO BE
A THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

EXPECT EVENING STORMS TO END OR AT LEAST DIMINISH. THEN NEXT
SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE TNGT. THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO
THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE...SO KEPT CHC GOING THAT AREA. LOOKS
LIKE FORCING FM THAT FEATURE WL BE CONFINED TO THE N...SO KEPT
C/E-C WI DRY.

ONCE THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. WENT A LITTLE BIT LOWER ON MAX
TEMPS TOMORROW DUE TO THE FINAL SHORTWAVE NOT CLEARING UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS DUE TO MIXING OUT
BEHIND THE WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVES WILL CONTINUE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE POPS RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACH WISCONSIN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT STARTING ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT GETS DRAGGED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS ON
SATURDAY. HAD CONSIDERED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE THE SHORT WAVE AXIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCE FITS BETTER WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. HAVE DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING. HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. NOT REALLY MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH IT SO MAYBE COULD
HAVE LEFT IT OUT BUT MODELS INDICATED QPF...SO THERE IT IS. LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST...AND SURROUNDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...SKIES MAY CLR LATE TNGT. BUT WINDS...ESP AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN YDA....SO FG POTENTIAL
IS LOWER. JUST WENT WITH MVFR FG FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MARQUIS/JS/MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS BEFORE 900 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO OSHKOSH. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-212100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK IS OF LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS IS BEFORE 900 PM.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THAT TIME FRAME...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER THE RISK WILL
INCLUDE THE AREA. IN EITHER CASE...THE STORMS LATE THIS WEEK WILL
POSE A RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT TIMES.

JS/MG

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