High Wind in Minnesota, October 26 to 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
341 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AT 3 AM...A 974 MB LOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
LATEST MSAS SHOWS HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 7 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE AN EQUALLY STRONG RISE COUPLET WAS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TODAY. THE 26.00Z NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PRESSURE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IT HAS THIS LOW DROPPING
DOWN TO 965 MB. MEANWHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM HAVE THIS
SURFACE LOW DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 960 MB. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE NOVEMBER 10 1998 LOW WHICH ESTABLISHED THE RECORD LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE FOR THE STATE OF MINNESOTA /ALBERT LEA AND
AUSTIN/. THE 850 MB WIND ANOMALIES ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BE
INTENSIFYING IN A DIFFERENT SPOT OF MINNESOTA.

THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE TROPOSPHERIC
FOLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THIS LINGERS INTO THE
EVENING. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE LOW IS DEEPENING SO
FAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN TODAY. THIS WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE. WHILE WE DO NOT MIX THAT DEEP...THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEEDS
MAY SLACKEN A BIT AND WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING THE SUBSIDENCE SOME AND
IN TURN...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE POTENTIAL
WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THIS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WE WILL
DEEPLY MIX UP TO 775 MB. THIS MAY LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER GUSTS THAN
TODAY. AT THE TOP OF THE WELL MIXED LAYER ARE WIND GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 80 MPH RANGE. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE EXTREMES. IN MOST
CASES...THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE 26.00Z MODELS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO HAVE THIS TROUGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORT
WAVES FROM CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS KEEPS A
CONTINUAL SUPPLY OF CANADIAN AIR. MEANWHILE THE EMCWF CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE WILL
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLDER GFS
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING THE CONSALL TEMPERATURES TOO COOL FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...IT WAS THE CONSENSUS TO
RAISE THESE TEMPERATURES UP BY 5 DEGREES.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE ONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY WHERE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. BY FAR...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD IT.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN...AND VERY SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

A SFC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE PASSING NORTHEAST OF KLSE BY 12Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD STAY FROM THIS DIRECTION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
POWER VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...SUSTAINED AT
20 TO 30 KTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KTS AT KRST. AT THIS
TIME...WED LOOKS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE MOST GUSTY
CONDITIONS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR MASS ALONG WITH STRONGER NEAR SFC SUBSIDENCE. BOTH COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER OR MORE FREQUENT AND VARIABLE GUSTS.

FOR CEILINGS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
ALL SUPPORT KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS MVFR CEILINGS. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE STACKED
LOW NORTHWARD THOUGH...SO GOES THE MOISTURE...AND POSSIBLE/PROBABLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THESE CEILINGS BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILING COULD
RETURN BY LATE WED MORNING THOUGH...AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SYSTEM SKIRTS ACROSS KRST/KLSE.

SHRA SHOULD ROTATE BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW SLIDES UNDERNEATH IT
AS IT...THE LOW...MOVES NORTH. EXPECT A BREAK FROM THE PCPN
TONIGHT...BUT POSSIBLY MORE SCT -SHRA FOR WED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-
     WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...TR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-271000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
500 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL RAKE ACROSS THE REGION...SUSTAINED
AT 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREE BRANCHES
AND POWER LINES...AND MAKE DRIVING OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SOUTH RUNNING ROADWAYS. THESE VERY
STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS IN THE OPEN WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60. A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. WIND MEASUREMENTS AND REPORTS
OF ANY DAMAGE FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK

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