Flood in Minnesota, December 7 to 10, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
529 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.UPDATE...
ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES TO NON-LAKE EFFECT AREAS FOR TONIGHT.
CONTINUED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY EAST OF BAYFIELD PENINSULA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE BELOW ARCTIC INVERSION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY GET AS LOW AS 4 MILES
IN NON-ACCUMULATING FLURRIES. AGAIN...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SPOTTY IN DISTRIBUTION...CLEAR AREAS WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER THAN
ADJACENT AREAS WHERE IT REMAINS BROKEN OR OVERCAST WITH ON AND OFF
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES DURING THE COMING NIGHT. THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE CONTINUES EAST OF BAYFIELD PENINSULA...WITH ACCUMULATING
VERY LOW DENSITY SNOW CONTINUING.

.AVIATION...12/08/00Z ISSUANCE...
MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS ARROWHEAD OF MN AND SRN CANADA WILL SINK
SOUTH TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. MOS GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SUPPORT THIS...THOUGH WE HAVE BECOME INCREASLY CONFIDEND BASED
ON MODEL COND PRESSURE DEFICIT FORECASTS ON MOST MODELS.  THE
STRATUS WILL ERODE AND MOVE OUT ON WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT FROM A NW TO N COMPONENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THRU FRI...
LES WILL CONT ALG WI SNOW BELT FOR ANOTHER 18-24 HRS...UNTIL WINDS
DIE OFF OR BACK TO THE S LATE WED. SLY WINDS WILL THEN USHER IN
WARMER AIR AHD OF NEXT LOW PRESS SYSTEM WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EWD JUST N OF CN BORDER ON THU. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LACK OF GULF
MSTR SHUD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMS TO TO 2-4 INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
AMTS ACRS OUR NRN ZONES CLOSER TO THE UPR LVL ENERGY. BY FRI...LES
AGAIN BECMS AN CONCERN ALG S SHORE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR TO THE N
THE LOLVL WINDS TURN. RIGHT NOW...ALL MODELS EXCEPT ECMWF HAVE
WINDS THAT ARE MORE WLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER LES
SETUP.

FRI NITE THRU TUE...
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT WITH SOLUTION
TO MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. ECMWF HAS THE FURTHEST NORTH SYSTEM TAKING
THE LOW ALONG A DSM-CHI-DET ROUTE WHICH WILL PUSH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS THE IRON RANGE. THE GEM/GFS TAKES IT ON A SGF-STL-EVV-
CVG PATH WHICH KEEP THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW AS FAR AS DLH.
WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
GRIDS FOR SN FOR NOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
BETTER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS TIMEFRAME GETS CLOSER. AFTER SYSTEM
MOVES OFF...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND ALREADY
OVER INL. MVFR CIGS WILL COVER ALL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -6  12   5  24 /  10  10  20  80
INL -11  10   3  21 /  10   0  40  80
BRD  -3  15   8  27 /  10   0  30  70
HYR  -2  16   6  24 /  10  10  10  70
ASX   6  19   7  24 /  40  10  10  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-
     004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...LONKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-081215-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
330 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-081215-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
330 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF THE MINNESOTA NEAR
SHORE WATERS THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST MARINE
FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

04

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
254 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HEAVY SNOW       GILE                    46.43N 90.23W
12/07/2010  M23.0 INCH       IRON               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.0 INCHES SINCE 5 AM THIS MORNING. STORM TOTAL 23
            INCHES. STILL SNOWING.

&&

KK