A strong thunderstorm moving through Port Hope produced a 44 mph wind gust.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A strong thunderstorm moving through Port Hope produced a 44 mph wind gust.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 2:44 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 344 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...VERY SIMILAR FORECAST ON TAP HEADING INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD ALLOWING DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 650 MB. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING THOUGH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING. ONCE AGAIN...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP HAS TO DEPEND ON LOCAL SMALL SCALE FEATURES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE BEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THERMAL TROUGHING. THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB. WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TODAY...LAKE BREEZES HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP BUT THERE HAVE STILL BEEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS IOWA MOVES INTO THE REGION. TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY ENTER THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS MORNINGS RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES SO DID NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THAT SOLUTION. MEANWHILE...12Z GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL RETAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 12Z MAINLY WEST OF THE 175 CORRIDOR. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON MIN TEMPS WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S EXCEPT FOR THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKE ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM... STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE. THE COMBINED CONTRIBUTION OF THESE FEATURES TOWARD AN INCREASE IN LARGER SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHER END POPS GIVEN THE FAVORABLY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS IT TRACKS EAST...TIED TO THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN AN ALREADY LACKLUSTER LOOKING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE...THIS SUGGESTS LESS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL EXIST LOCALLY FOR SUSTAINING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. IN ADDITION...EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION LEAVES THE OVERALL DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN QUESTION. SHOULD A PERIOD OF BETTER DIABATIC HEATING EVOLVE INTO THE AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS COULD ORGANIZE. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE IN THE VINCINITY OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND/OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A DIURNALLY INDUCED DIMINISHING TREND IN COVERAGE WILL LIKELY COMMENCE OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF CLOSED UPPER LOWS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PERHAPS AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK/POORLY RESOLVED SHORTWAVE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS UP OVER 592 DM BY EVENING AND ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT UP THROUGH THIS LAYER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE...HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 LOOK ATTAINABLE. MAIN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES TOWARD HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS...CHANCE POPS CERTAINLY REMAIN WARRANTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING LOCALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...UNDER POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CARRYING POTENTIALLY 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 90/LOWER 90S. SUBTLE AND BRIEF COOLING/DRYING OF THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CLUSTER OF CLOSED LOWS SITUATED OVER CANADA. ANOTHER LOW EMERGING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NEXT WEEKEND... ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE RESIDENT ENVIRONMENT...AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. && .MARINE... DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 121 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY MBS...WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPEARS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM....MR MARINE.......AGD AVIATION.....AGD YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 405 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120815- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 405 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HAIL TO DIME SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...AS THEY TRACK EAST AT 25 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE CONTAINING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120815- ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 405 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...AS THEY TRACK EAST AT 25 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE CONTAINING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL MOUNT CLEMENS 42.60N 82.88W
07/11/2010 M0.50 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER
0410 PM MARINE TSTM WIND MOUNT CLEMENS 42.60N 82.88W
07/11/2010 M42 MPH MACOMB MI ASOS
&&
RKULIKSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 419 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 MIZ063-070-112115- MACOMB-ST. CLAIR- 419 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT CLEMENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND VERY LOW VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... NEW BALTIMORE BY 445 PM EDT... MARINE CITY BY 515 PM EDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 MIZ063-112130- ST. CLAIR- 430 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKEPORT BY 500 PM EDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 440 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 MIZ049-055-112145- HURON-SANILAC- 440 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF UBLY TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECKERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. * THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... DECKERVILLE BY 450 PM EDT... UBLY BY 455 PM EDT... BAD AXE AND MINDEN BY 505 PM EDT... FORESTVILLE BY 520 PM EDT... PORT HOPE AND HARBOR BEACH BY 545 PM EDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 521 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 MIZ049-112200- HURON- 521 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF BAD AXE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... REDMAN BY 535 PM EDT... GRINDSTONE CITY BY 540 PM EDT... HURON CITY BY 545 PM EDT... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
549 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0548 PM HEAVY RAIN DECKERVILLE 43.53N 82.74W
07/11/2010 M0.75 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
1.25 HOUR TOTAL
&&
RKULIKThe Detroit radar (KDTX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:52 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 249724.