Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, June 3, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
108 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS PAH FA IN MOIST SLYS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER UA ANALYSIS DOES SHOW DRIER AIR
ALOFT...SOME OF WHICH HAS MIXED DOWN WITH TDS TODAY RUNNING A GOOD
3-5F LOWER THAN YDAY SAME TIME. THIS IS PERHAPS SUPPRESSING CU
DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTION FOR NOW. RADAR DOES SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOUNDARY TO NORTH IN CENTRAL IL...AND ADDITIONALLY IN NRN AR
INTO WTN...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS THE AREA TO WATCH WITH A MOIST
TONGUE WEDGING ACROSS OUR SERN MOST COUNTIES-EASTWARD. SWOMCD
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL WATCH BOX IN THIS AREA...WILL KEEP MONITORING.

NAM ACTUALLY PICKS UP ON BOTH AFOREMENTIONED PCPN AREAS...AND
SUGGESTS POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY DIMINISHING AFTER FRONTAL
APPROACH/DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT THEN RETURNS NWARD
AND/OR REJUVENATES WITH A NORTHWARD PUSH AS A WARM BOUNDARY LATER
FRI-FRI NIGHT...REINTRODUCING A SMALLISH CHC POP SE. AT THE SAME
TIME THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS ITS TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE
NWLYS...WHICH BY SAT NIGHT THE GFS DRAGS ANOTHER MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO/ACROSS PAH FA...RESULTING IN BEST CHC POPS
SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF DISAGREES AND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THRU ITS DURATION. WE SPLIT THE DIFF AND CARRIED
SMALLISH POPS BUT SPIKED THEM A LITTLE SAT NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
AGREE ON A LITTLE DRIER AIR INFILTRATION LATER SUN INTO
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE NW FLOW ACTIVITY FOR TUE AND ENDING
AGAIN IN DRY WEATHER MID/LATTER PTN OF WEEK.

HEAT/HUMIDITY LOOK TO HOLD THOUGH THE BRIEF DRY AIR INFILTRATIONS
MAY BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY FADES
AWAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO ACT ON
ITS FORCING IN SRN PARTS OF WRN KY BY LATE AFTN. ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE REGION...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE ABOVE 850
MB...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE...THUS NO CB MENTION IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AT KPAH. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLACK OVNGT...THUS MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT MANY AIRPORTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041015-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
216 PM CDT THU JUN 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MOST PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY 800 PM. REFER TO THE
WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA...GIVING US CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING SPECIFICS ON WHERE THEY
WILL FORM AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL BE SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR THE WATCH IS REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.