An area of low pressure moving through the southeastern states and then off the eastern seaboard combined with an upper level disturbance to bring wintry weather to eastern Kentucky on the morning of February 2nd. Some light accumulations of ice and snow were reported across several counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An area of low pressure moving through the southeastern states and then off the eastern seaboard combined with an upper level disturbance to bring wintry weather to eastern Kentucky on the morning of February 2nd. Some light accumulations of ice and snow were reported across several counties. The icy conditions led to a serious car accident on Highway 23 in Thornton.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 1:30 AM EST, 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 130 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2010 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/ THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGHER RETURNS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE BORDER...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD JUST BE VIRGA AS LAST FEW HOUR OBS DID NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT KCSV DESPITE HIGHER ECHO RETURNS. CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN AND CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INCREASE. THE TEMPERATURE COLUMN LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND DENDRITIC GROWTH AS SATURATION OCCURS THROUGH -14C AROUND DAWN SO SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WITH DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE WET BULBING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY SNOW...DESPITE MODELS HANGING ON TO DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS COULD STILL BE BELOW FREEZING WHEN PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BEING THE MAIN QUESTION MARK. WILL LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY RIDE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT. FEEL THAT A MIXED BAG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...TIMING AND ALTITUDE. OVERALL...IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL NOT BE STRONG. WE HAVE DRY AIR WORKING IN OUR FAVOR IN TWO WAYS. FIRST...IT SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF PRECIP AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS TO SATURATE. THIS WILL CUT QPF DOWN. ALSO...SINCE THE LOWER LAYERS ARE SO DRY...WE SHOULD WET BULB TO AN OVERALL COOLER NEAR SURFACE TEMP PROFILE AND ALL SNOW WOULD BE MUCH BETTER THAN ANY MIXED PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREATS IN HWO AND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM FOR DAYS 1-3 WILL BE THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY...THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION...AND THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ONCE IT BEGINS TO FALL. THE LATEST THINKING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF MODELS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE ALL DIFFERENT IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH THE CANADIAN KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY NEARLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM12 IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ONLY AS FAR WEST AS THE TIERS OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THE GFS AND SREF...ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH HAVE PRECIPITATION AFFECTING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE COMPROMISE WAS TO GO WITH THE SREF AND GFS...AS THE LATEST MAV/METMOS NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THE TIME FRAME BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...INCREASED THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF TONIGHT/S AND TOMORROWS PRECIPITATION AND THE POP ALONG AND WEST OF THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED IS SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OR SLEET WILL MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN BY 16 OR 17Z TOMORROW. A SPECIAL WEATHER HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START WITH A TROUGH AND VORTEX LIFTING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. FURTHER TO THE WEST A MEAN THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THU AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MEAN TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EAST....TO THE PLANS AND MS VALLEY REGION OM THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TWO SHORTWAVES MAY BECOME A BIT MORE PHASED BY FRI NIGHT...THOUGH A BROAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR VORTEX POSSIBLY RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN ROTATING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO END THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LED TO AN OVERALL COLDER AIRMASS AFTER THE INITIAL SYSTEM PASSES EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS LESS SPREAD IN MODEL TIMING OF THE CORRESPONDING SFC SYSTEM TO THE EASTWARD MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. OVERALL THE TREND APPEARS TO BE TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FROM THU THROUGH SAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS FROM SUN. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z AND 0Z ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING THE EVENTUAL MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA...LATE FRI NIGHT OR ON SAT. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IF FOR A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK THAN SOME MODEL RUNS FROM SUNDAY...WITH A LOW OFF THE TX COAST AT 12Z THU...THE VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE AROUND 12Z FRI...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AT 12Z SAT...THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO END THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SENSIBLE WX...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THU...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING ON THU NIGHT OR EARLY ON FRI. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ARGUES FOR PRECIP AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRI AND INTO FRI EVENING. THERMAL FIELDS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AS A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN COUNTIES ON THU EVENING... WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY IN SOME PLACES DOWN BELOW FREEZING. THERE WILL BE WETBULB POTENTIAL BELOW CLOUD BASE. THE HIGH MIGHT BE ABLE TO SUPPLY ENOUGH COLD AND OR DRY AIR FOR SOME PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AT LEAST AT THE ONSET...IF NOT LATER IN THE FAR N NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE BOTH FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIP TYPES ON THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THE PRECIP MAY BE ALL RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON FRI...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR LATITUDE ON FRI NIGHT...LEADING TO ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL THE MAIN THROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO START THE WEEKEND. WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL THERMAL PROFILE...ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP FALLING IN FROZEN FORM INCREASES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER OR COLDER CELSIUS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP...PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN...OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR ON FRI NIGHT TO SAT. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES TOWARD DAWN...AND A BIT SOONER AT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. AT LOZ AND SME HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER OF RAIN OR SNOW AS THE MOISTURE SHIELD BRUSHES PAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VCSH WILL COVER FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THAT GET CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES INTO MIDDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD EVEN AS THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATER TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER DAWN AND THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST TOWARD EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087- 088-118-120. && SHORT TERM...AR/SCHOETTMER LONG TERM....JP AVIATION...GREIF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1150 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119- 030800- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN- JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY- LESLIE-MARTIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK... WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG... BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER... HYDEN...INEZ 1150 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF ICING OR SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. KYZ087-088-118-120-030800- BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN... WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE 1150 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF ICING AND ANY SNOW AMOUNTS EXPERIENCED INTO TUESDAY MORNING. JP/GREIF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1058 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010 KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-021500- ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE- MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD- LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK... WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG... BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER... HYDEN...INEZ 1058 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010 ...LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY OCCURS...MAY FALL AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OR POSSIBLY A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. AT THIS TIME LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IT TAKES VERY LITTLE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY. JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported a trace of snowfall and a light glaze of ice between 2 and 6 am near Prestonsburg. Less than a tenth of an inch of ice was reported, but it was enough to form a glaze of ice on untreated and exposed surfaces with isolated patches of ice on area roads.
A trained spotter reported patchy icy spots on Highway 28 between Buckhorn Lake and Chavies.
A trained spotter reported a serious car accident near Thornton. The accident was caused when the car lost control on an icy road surface, prompting the temporary closing of Highway 23 where the accident occurred.
A spotter near Relief reported freezing drizzle.
A spotter reported one tenth of an inch of new ice accumulation in Smilax. The ice was accumulating on walkways, roadways, power lines and trees in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 211236, 211237, 211238, 211239, 211240.