Hail in Kansas, July 12, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

UPPER LVL TROF OVER COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS CONTINUING
TO MARCH EASTWARD TOWARDS WRN KS PER W/V LOOP. ALL THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE MOVING OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS
LATER THIS MORNING AND AS IT DOES PCPN IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE THE PCPN AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WEAKENING AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTED. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS AS THIS WAVE CROSSES INTO WRN KS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST PCPN CHANCES
ARE PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO IMPROVE AS THIS WAVE ENCOUNTERS
BETTER LLVL FORCING AND IMPROVING INSTAB. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND INCREASE POPS
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CNTL/SE CWA.

FURTHER N/NW ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TRACK OF
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HOWEVER IS MORE UNCERTAIN. GFS KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT
WHILE THE NAM PUSHES A FRONT/BOUNDARY INTO OUR NRN CWA BY 18Z WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING IN NEB EARLIER
THIS MORNING WILL FAVOR THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF ANY SFC
FEATURE SO WILL TREND TOWARDS THE NAMS SOLUTION OF LINGERING PCPN
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NE CWA.

AS OUR FIRST UPPER LVL WAVE EXITS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT...OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUR OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NW CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROF THE NW
FLOW OVER THE CNTL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS AN UPPER
LVL S/W RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. AS A WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO IMPROVE...A TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND EML WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO WRN KS.

BASED ON THE LATEST 85H TEMP TRENDS THE GFS/GEM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE WARMUP CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WHILE THE NAM/SREF
MEAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER WARMUP.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS CROSSING WRN KS LATER
TODAY WILL FAVOR THE THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR HIGHS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS ON TUESDAY...00Z WED 85H TEMPS FROM
NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT IS POISED TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT MID/UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION
TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SURFACE WINDS ARE SHOWN TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER
AIR THEN PROGGED TO INVADE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS ALONG
WITH DEEP THERMAL MIXING/STRONG INSOLATION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 100 OVER MOST WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS, MAY BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH MOST FUELS REMAIN ON THE GREEN SIDE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

OTHERWISE, ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
MAINLY NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 96. HOWEVER, A VERY WARM EML WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES +16 TO +18C SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND
MITIGATE MUCH EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH. NONETHELESS, THE POSITIVE
SIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS
IS THAT IT SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT/BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING.  EXPECT THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE DIRECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT THREAT UNDER
THIS SETUP AS MODEST POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BREAK THROUGH THE WARM
EML, ESPECIALLY IF WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AS THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE CURRENT FORECAST
DISPLAYS THIS TREND WELL AND OPTED TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHALLENGING MORNING TO AFTERNOON PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE
KDDC, KGCK AND KHYS TERMINALS AS A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, MAY BRING SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING AND IT APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67 100  71 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  88  67 102  69 /  40   0   0   0
EHA  92  69 102  68 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  89  68 102  71 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  83  65 100  73 /  40  10   0   0
P28  89  70  98  74 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/35/35

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
453 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
453 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010 /353 AM MDT MON JUL 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MID WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRE TODAY EAST OF A DIGHTON TO DODGE
CITY TO ASHLAND LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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