Winter Weather in Indiana, December 24 to 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA IS NOW IN EFFECT VS.
NOT GOING INTO EFFECT AT NOON. SNOW IS SPREADING EAST MUCH MORE
RAPIDLY THAN MODEL DEPICTIONS. THE RUC IS THE CLOSEST...BUT ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FAILED MISERABLY AT CATCHING ON TO THIS LEAD
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED WEST OF THE FARMINGTON AREA...AND THE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE SUBJECT TO ADDITIONAL UPDATES...GIVEN THE MUCH FASTER
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LEAD WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY USELESS WITH THE EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...MUCH FASTER THAN
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE BASICALLY GONE WITH
SATELLITE...RADAR TRENDS AND PRECIP TYPE BEING REPORTED...TO GAUGE
POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND EVEN UP THROUGH 18Z. NEARLY EVERY PRECIP
TYPE IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE OZARKS...SO WILL CARRY WHAT
SHOULD BE A LIGHT MIX THIS MORNING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

THE FORECAST...WITH TIME...SHOULD ADJUST TO PRIOR THINKING...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS NORTHERN STREAM S/WV DIGS SHARPLY SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX JUST NORTH OF THE TN/AR STATE LINES IN OUR
AREA LATE TODAY PER THE SREF AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT WITH TIME
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO
INCLUDE ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. WE ALSO CUT THE
EXPIRATION TIME BACK TO 6 AM...AS THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE
OVER BY THEN. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THE SAME ON AMOUNTS. 2-3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 13 IN ILLINOIS AND
THE KEVV TRI-STATE. 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM
MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO NEAR PADUCAH TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY.
AROUND 1 INCH IS FORECAST ALONG THE TN/AR BORDERS WITH KY/MO. OF
COURSE SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE AMOUNTS IS
POSSIBLE AS WE WELL KNOW IN SNOW SITUATIONS. BASICALLY WENT WITH
10-12:1 RATIOS...AND A BLEND OF HPC/GFS/SREF QPF VALUES. GIVEN
THE PRE STORM PREPARATION...AND WHAT FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE DURING THE EVENT...TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE TOO BAD OVER
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. NORTHERN 1/2 MAY BE A LITTLE
DIFFERENT ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. JUST MINOR TWEAKS.
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE YIELDING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR EITHER
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.
OVER SE MISSOURI...CHANCES APPEAR SLIM AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE
COLDER AND BRISK AS WELL CHRISTMAS DAY INTO SUNDAY.

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SNOWFALL WILL VARY
IN INTENSITY...BUT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE DURATION OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LONGER IN THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...WHERE SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR. COLDER TEMPS AND HEAVIER SNOW AT THOSE SITES WILL REQUIRE
MORE ATTENTION TO RUNWAY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-
     HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BOLLINGER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-WAYNE MO.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR ALEXANDER-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-
     SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY.

&&

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