Drought in Illinois, November 1 to 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NE WINDS ACROSS THE FA. DEW POINTS UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
OVER YESTERDAYS VALUES...PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM HIGH FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS. STILL AN ELEVATED CONCERN THOUGH. IT WAS MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE FA...HOWEVER CLOUDS WERE OVER WEST MISSOURI AHEAD
OF A S/WV OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...WILL BE HOW FAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS...AND RAIN CHANCES
FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WVAPOR SHOWS A SECOND S/WV OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND DIG SHARPLY SE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HEAD EAST AND INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER NE TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY NEAR THE ARKANSAS
AND TENNESSEE STATE LINES. THE SREF/NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL AGREE ON
THIS. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS IS
THE MOST NOTICEABLE OUTLIER...IN DEVELOPING FORCING/MOISTURE AND
RAIN OVER WEST KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WELL
NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW. THE NAM AND SREF MODELS KEEP ALL OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWFA. THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF IS MORE LIKE THE NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS...BUT DOES BRING A
LITTLE QPF JUST ACROSS THE TN STATE LINE INTO WEST KY...MAINLY
WEDNESDAY. BASICALLY...KEPT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS (WEST KY) IN THAT
GENERAL TIME FRAME...BEFORE HAVING IT DRY EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FA WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN AT ALL...AND A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER. THIS INCLUDES MOST
OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. GFS/NAM MOS NUMBERS
WERE CLOSE...AND BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH 00Z AND 12Z RUNS REMAIN AT ODDS...WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND HOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL PHASE
WITH THE SYSTEM AT ITS BASE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH THE
LONGITUDINAL PLACEMENT...THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD MEAN EVEN MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRIOR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS
AND EC SUGGEST THE ECMWF REMAINS A TAD TOO FAR WEST. HOWEVER IT
HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT NOW FOR 3 MODEL RUNS...SO DO NOT WANT
TO REMOVE IT FROM THE EQUATION. WE WILL USE A COMPROMISE. THAT
COMPROMISE WILL RESULT IN ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...AND LOWERING OUR HIGH TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. WILL
BE RATHER CHILLY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. NOTICED THAT 850 MB FORECAST
TEMPS ARE IN THE -4 TO -7 RANGE FRIDAY OFF BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROF...MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME MINOR LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPED FROM
ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE PERIMETER OF THE
TROF AXIS. FOR NOW...AM NOT GOING TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION. ONLY THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WILL MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP POSSIBILITY. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE TROF EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CLOUDS AND MODERATING TEMPS
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING MORE DRY AIR BELOW ABOUT 10K
FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE 10K FEET/ LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY 5
KNOTS OR LESS AT NIGHT AND CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
301 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LIMITED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY 30 TO 35 PERCENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.