Drought in Hawaii, November 1 to 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS ERODED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS...THOUGH SEA BREEZES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS.
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...THOUGH BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL CARRY SOME SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TOMORROW...
CARRYING A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING MODEST SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE TRADES ARE DECREASING
AS AN APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY 550 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI WEAKENS
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF STATE. A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE
TRADE WIND FLOW IS CURRENTLY FOCUSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND WILL MOVE UP THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER STABLE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LIMITING
CLOUD TOPS TO AROUND 8000 FT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH
THE MORNING. WITH THE TRADES ON THE DECLINE...SEA BREEZES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BLEED THROUGH THE WEAKENING
FEATURE AND WILL FILL IN ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. OVER LAND...EXPECT
STABLE AND AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES MORE
WIDESPREAD.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...PROVIDING NEEDED RAINFALL. THIS SHALLOW FEATURE WILL
REACH KAUAI TUESDAY NIGHT...PASS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THAT WILL
PERIODICALLY CARRY SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS. WITH THE FRONTAL
BAND STALLING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY MAUI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN...AND TRADE WILL EASE A NOTCH.

&&

.MARINE...
A VERY LARGE...EARLY SEASON NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD LATE
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS WILL
ARRIVE MID DAY MONDAY...AND THE SWELL WILL BUILD RAPIDLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERATING 25-35 FT SURF ON THE FACE
WITH LARGER WAVES ALONG OUTER REEFS BY TUESDAY. HIGH TIDE WILL BE
MAXING OUT MID DAY TUESDAY...VARYING PLUS OR MINUS GIVEN THE EXACT
LOCATION. IT IS NOT AN EXTREME TIDE...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
MINOR RUN-UP AND EROSION.

A HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI STARTING AT 4 PM ON MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FOR THE SAME TIME ON WEST FACING OAHU AND NORTH FACING
BIG ISLAND SHORES.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERLY ORIENTATION WITH THIS SWELL WILL RESULT
IN HARBOR SURGES INTO KAHULUI HARBOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE SWELL...AND REBUILDING TRADE WINDS MAY REQUIRE AN
ADVISORY OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY COASTAL WATERS AND CHANNELS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 PM HST MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...NORTH FACING
SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM HST MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM HST THURSDAY
FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

WROE