Damaging Winds in Idaho, June 29, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED HOLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK
SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEVADA TO ABOUT BELLEVUE AS SUGGESTED BY
SATELLITE DERIVED LIS...AND CONVECTION IS PICKING UP SOME IN THAT
AREA. THE BIGGER FOCUS IS ON EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THAT DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRACK INTO CENTRAL IDAHO LATER
THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ACTIVE WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AS THAT DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARDS MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE NAM12 MODEL MOVES A LOW
FROM THAT AREA TOWARDS POCATELLO AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN FLIRTING
WITH DOWN DRAFT POTENTIAL OF 50 PLUS MPH THE PAST FEW RUNS. THAT
COULD BE MODIFIED SOME BY MOISTURE ACTUALLY PRESENT...BOISE 12Z
SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS .89 INCH.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION RECURS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR CROSSING
NEVADA. THAT CAN LIMIT SHOWERS AND PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO ALLOW
MORE HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PROLONGED TROUGHING
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY AS THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SECOND SPOKE ON
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.  A SLOW MOVING AND BROAD SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-301200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
320 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
344 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

IDZ017-292230-
LINCOLN ID-BLAINE ID-
344 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 430 PM MDT

AT 342 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHFIELD..MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   CAREY...

LAT...LON 4336 11395 4339 11384 4339 11383 4329 11364
      4298 11398 4308 11418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 215DEG 24KT 4311 11400

HATTINGS