Wildfire in Hawaii, November 5, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FAR
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING. EVEN
SO...MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD ON WINDWARD SIDES WITH
SCATTERED REPORTS ON LEEWARD AREAS. SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM WINDWARD MAUI ESPECIALLY WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND
HAS BEEN FOCUSED...PUU KUKUI REPORTS 14.15 INCHES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS AND WEST WAILUAIKI HAS MEASURED 6.72 INCHES OVER THE SAME
PERIOD. SUNNIER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON LEEWARD LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON
LEEWARD AREAS WITH ISOLATED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SUBTLE
CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COOLING ALOFT FROM A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLIES REACHES THE STATE. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENING ABOVE 700 MB STATEWIDE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPELL LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER TO
LEEWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS
QUITE STRONG. DRAMATIC DRYING AND STABILIZING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND LIGHTER
WINDS.

THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS RESPONSE
TO THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE TROUGH STALLS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND BRINGS US A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
TRADES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH LOTS OF MODEL TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW LONG THE WINDS WILL FINALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO EASTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AS WELL AS THE ELEVATED TRADE WIND SWELL
ARE COMBINING TO BRING HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON A VARIETY
OF NORTH...WEST AND EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER TODAY...AND
THE TRADE WIND SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY AS THE TRADES
WEAKEN JUST A TAD.  A NEW NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG TRADES WILL HOLD TODAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE ENOUGH
FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY OVER SOME OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY THEN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TODAY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...AND THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI...
MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

BRENCHLEY