High Surf in Hawaii, November 2 to 5, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
835 PM HST MON NOV 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND STALL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CARRY SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS
AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 220 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI IS BEING ERODED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY LESS THAN 400 MILES NORTH OF THE GARDEN
ISLE. AS A RESULT...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...ALLOWING
LAND BREEZES TO SET UP TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CREEPING ALONG
THE DECLINING TRADE WIND FLOW IS FUELING MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS
AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD
CLEAR THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.

RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE STATE DROPPING TO AROUND 1 INCH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE WEAKENING
BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS. WE WERE
THINKING THAT SEA BREEZES WOULD DOMINATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BLEED THROUGH
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND OVERPOWER THE SEA BREEZES. WE WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI TUESDAY NIGHT...PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PERIODICALLY CARRY SHOWERS
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. WITH THE FRONTAL BAND STALLING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM KAUAI TO MOLOKAI AND WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS CONTINUING. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS ON THE RISE. THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY
REGISTERED SWELLS OF 9 FT AT 18 SECONDS IN THE PAST HOUR...WHILE
BUOY 51101 CAME IN AT 13 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THE SWELL WILL BUILD
RAPIDLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERATING 25 TO 35 FEET SURF
ON THE FACE WITH LARGER WAVES ALONG OUTER REEFS BY TOMORROW. HIGH
TIDE WILL BE MAXING OUT MID-DAY TUESDAY...VARYING GIVEN THE EXACT
LOCATION. IT IS NOT AN EXTREME TIDE...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
MINOR RUN-UP AND EROSION.

A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING OAHU AND NORTH
FACING BIG ISLAND SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UP FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL. THE ADVISORY
RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
AS THE SWELL CONTINUES AND NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERLY ORIENTATION OF THIS SWELL WILL RESULT IN
HARBOR SURGES INTO KAHULUI HARBOR. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE DANGER OF HARBOR SURGES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST TODAY THROUGH 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS...BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS...BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS...PAILOLO CHANNEL AND
MAALAEA BAY.

&&

WROE