Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR WINDWARD OR MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABLE AND ALSO RELATIVELY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. TRADE
WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE IS ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF OAHU. EARLY MONDAY EVENING THERE
WAS ALMOST NO PRECIPITATION RECORDED ON AUTOMATED GAGES EXCEPT
NEARLY ONE QUARTER INCH AT KEALAKEKUA IN THE KONA DISTRICT OF THE
BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED MOSTLY STABLE
APPEARING CLOUDS MOVING ONTO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONSEQUENTLY ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR MOUNTAINS AND SOME ISOLATED
WINDWARD AREAS...ENDING EARLY OR MID MORNING TUESDAY. NONETHELESS
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS DRY EXCEPT FOR MINOR PASSING TRADE
SHOWERS...LEEWARD AREAS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN
SLOPES OF THE KONA DISTRICT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GETTING MODEST
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS WEEK THE ONLY MAJOR LOW WILL REMAIN IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SMALLER LOWS MIGRATING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 35N...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALSO DISPLACE
THE SUMMERTIME SURFACE HIGH SOUTHWARD.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE POSITION OF THE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH TO ANOTHER HIGH. MODELS STILL
AGREE ON SHIFTING THIS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF OAHU BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE GENTLE TRADES
BUT WITH SOME SEA BREEZE TENDENCY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A
CONTINUATION OF A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS A SHOWER OR TWO FORMING OVER ISLAND INTERIORS. THIS
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WOULD BE A STRONGER POSSIBILITY IF THE
RIDGE DOES MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS...BUT PRESENTLY THIS IS NOT
FORECAST.

WINDS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS REMAIN ABOVE 30 MPH AND SINCE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH WILL PERSIST...HENCE THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
AND THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ON THE SUMMIT OF HALEAKALA ON MAUI ARE NEAR
30 MPH AND THEREFORE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE HALEAKALA
NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY.

BOTH THE LATE SEASON NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THE SOUTH SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LOWER TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA
AND MAUNA LOA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...PAILOLO CHANNEL...ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND FOR WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

HOAG