High Surf in Hawaii, January 4 to 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JAN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
STALL NEAR KAUAI TONIGHT. KAUAI WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE OAHU AND MAUI WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VOG ACROSS MOST OF THE ALOHA STATE
UNTIL MID WEEK...WHEN ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
FROM KAUAI TO MAUI COUNTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY LIES JUST TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A FEW NARROW
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN EAST OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE FRONT LACKS
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT SO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES IN THE VICINITY OF KAUAI.

A SECOND WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LACK SUPPORT SO
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL. THE
SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER MAUI COUNTY OR
THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH
THE SECOND FRONT IS THAT IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO LIGHT TRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
HIGHS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE MOVE BACK DOWN OVER THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND PUTTING THE ISLANDS INTO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT WNW SWELL SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY UP SINCE CONDITIONS WILL BE
RATHER ROUGH DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE WINDS.

A MUCH LARGER AND LONGER PERIOD WNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES. OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY
THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL TO BE UP TO NEAR 20 FEET NEAR KAUAI AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON DOWN TO MAUI COUNTY. WITH THIS SWELL HAVING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN THE LARGE SWELLS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...THE KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
ITS LARGEST WAVES SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. SWELL HEIGHTS OFF OF
THE KONA COAST ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10 FEET. SWELL SHADOWING
DOWNSTREAM OF KAUAI WILL BLOCK SOME COASTS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS VARYING GREATLY FROM PLACE TO PLACE. THERE
WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL WAVES DUE TO REFRACTION
ALONG SOME SOUTHERN SHORES THAT HAVE WESTERLY EXPOSURE TO THEM. THIS
SWELL WILL BE LONG LASTING WITH WARNING LEVEL SURF EXTENDING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND KAUAI ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY DUE THE COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 10 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED TO MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS
LATER TODAY DUE TO THE NEW SWELL ARRIVING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

BURKE