Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CB...BUT LEAVE OUT VCTS AS EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO
REMAIN FURTHER THAN 10 MILES FROM THE AIRPORT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY...NEAR CALM TONIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND THE MODELS SHOWING LESS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE BERMUDA RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE
REGION AND LOOK LIKE IT WILL STAY THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP GA IN MOIST W TO SW FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY AND INTO
GA/THE CAROLINAS WED. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DIURNALLY
EVERYDAY WITH CAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG... AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1
TO -3 RANGE. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEEK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ROTATION WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES BUILD STRONGER OVER THE AREA BY THU/FRI
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A NICE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 90S THU-SUN. DIURNAL CONVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. GFS WANTS TO PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE GULF. THIS ALSO ALLOWS A BIT DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MODEL
OF CHOICE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  73  96  72  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
ATLANTA         93  75  93  75  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     86  68  89  67  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  70  97 /  30  20  30  10  20
COLUMBUS        96  75  96  77  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
GAINESVILLE     92  74  93  73  95 /  30  20  30  10  20
MACON           96  73  96  74  97 /  30  20  20  10  20
ROME            94  72  95  72  96 /  30  20  30  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  70  93  71  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
VIDALIA         98  77  97  76  97 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GALSCOCK-GILMER-GORDON-GREENE-GWINETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-
MONGTOMERY-MONROE-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-N.FULTON-NEWTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-S.FULTON-
SCHLEY-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-
TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-WILKINSON-
1140 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000 TO 2500 THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDEX VALUES OF -2 TO -4. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINING
WARM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

GAZ004-005-201800-
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WHITFIELD AND
MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS AND OTHER POTENTIAL STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WHITFIELD AND MURRAY COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NORTH GEORGIA
SPEEDWAY...CHATSWORTH...RAMHURST...ETON...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
AND CONASAUGA LAKE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.