Winter Weather in Georgia, February 15, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR
TO THE REGION. IN THE FRONTS WAKE...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL 88D LOOPS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
ENCROACHING THE FAR SW CWFA AS OF 07 UTC...DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
INCREASING LLVL WAA FLOW AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE. STRONGLY FORCED
FRONTAL ZONE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA FROM
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TIL ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON. SREF QPF THRU 18 UTC
REMAINS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WETTER AND FASTER OP GFS AND
DRIER NAM. UPWARDS OF 0.40 INCH LIQUID IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FAVORED
SSW EXPOSURES IN THE SW CWFA TO 0.20 TO 0.30 TOTALS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...A PERIOD OF
EMBEDDED HEAVIER PCPN IS LIKELY. LATEST TEMPERATURE AND WET BULB
ANALYSIS SHOWS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE NC MTNS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SO
WILL PLAN ON ALL SNOW THERE...UPWARDS OF AROUND 4 INCHES W/SW OF THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND A 2 INCH AVERAGE ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE FTHLS...GIVEN THE JUMP BACK TO MILD
TEMPERATURES ON THE 00 UTC GFS. NOW BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE
SUB-ADVISORY TOTALS FOR HICKORY...WHICH IS BACK IN LINE WITH THE
SREF SNOWFALL MEAN OF ABT 0.2...AND EVEN LESS HEADING EAST TOWARD
I-77.

PCPN CHANCES DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOT ROCKETS
ENE ACRS THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STOUT LLVL CAA FLOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER INDICATES SUB-ADVISORY LVL WINDS. THE ONSET OF MOISTURE
RETURN WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO LINGER/REDEVELOP ACRS THE WESTERN NC MTNS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WNW FLOW AND POTENT VORT PASSAGE TO
RESULT IN NUMEROUS ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE WESTERN NC
MTNS TONIGHT. GOING WARNING TO REMAIN AS IS AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
DETERMINE IF ANY ADVISORY LVL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A BRISK AND VERY COLD NIGHT
IS ON TAP WITH TUESDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS 10-12 DEG F BELOW CLIMO.
HIGH ELEVATIONS ACRS THE NC MTNS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST NW FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER TUE THRU THU.

MDLS SHOW DEEP NW FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THEN STALLS NEAR MAINE AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ALSO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME ENHANCING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS. H85 TO H7 MEAN FLOW REMAINS NWLY AROUND 40 KTS THRU THE
PERIOD. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND WEST
OF THE MTNS THRU THE PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY REACHING AS HIGH AS H7.
THE MOISTURE FINALLY BEGINS TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY THU. H85
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH A COUPLE OF SURGES
OF CAA COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING THRU. H85 TEMPS
FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM DURING THE DAY THU AS WELL. HAVE HIGHEST POP
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN WED NITE WITH THE SHORT WAVE/CAA SURGES.
HIGHEST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS OCCUR THEN AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN EFFECT...WILL NOT EXTEND ANY PRODUCTS ATTM.
THAT SAID...CURRENT FCST SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER FROM GRAHAM TO HAYWOOD...AND AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE TN BORDER FROM MADISON TO AVERY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NRN PORTIONS OF BUNCOMBE...JACKSON AND MACON COULD SEE FROM 1 TO AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES. LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SRN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES WILL SEE FLURRIES TO POSSIBLY AN INCH. SRN JACKSON...
TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON WILL SEE FLURRIES AT MOST. LOWS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH HIGHS SHOWING A SLOW WARMING TREND.

OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SOME CLOUDS WILL SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NC. LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH
HIGHS SHOWING A SLOW WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON FRIDAY
WITH THE EASTERN CONUS H5 TROF GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OVER THE NE
ATLANTIC WHILE OUR UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS MODELS STILL
DO NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE
GFS WANTS TO MOVE A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIGHT
OVER THE CWA ON MIDDAY SAT...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ABOUT 12
TO 18 SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION. ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...THIS
FEATURE WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST IS CHARACTERIZED BY PREDOMINATELY ZONAL H5 FLOW AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF OVER EASTERN CANADA.
WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I TRENDED TOWARDS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE OLDER 18Z HPC GUIDANCE...FOR
MUCH OF THE FCST. KEPT BEST POPS FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH 12Z SUN WITH A
SOLID CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN NC AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THIS
COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND POSITION. MAX TEMPS WERE EDGED UP A DEGREE
OR TWO ON FRI AND SAT IN KEEPING WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE. MIN
TEMPS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT.
AS LOW LEVEL LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STILL
ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...BUT SHOULD
LOWER CIGS TO IFR AND VISBY TO AT LEAST MVFR. WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO THE 5-10KT RANGE
BY EARLY EVENING WITH FROPA EXPECTED JUST BEFORE 00Z TUES.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN ADVANCE
OF FRONTAL ZONE PCPN WHICH WILL SPREAD ACRS THE FA THROUGH MIDDAY
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT THE TERMINALS. CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS TONIGHT THRU THU. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...WITH RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING AT KAVL THRU TUE AND POSSIBLY
THRU WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ035-036-
     053-056-065-501>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
     058.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ059-062>064.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH/JPT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

GAZ010-017-NCZ035-036-053-056-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-161100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
600 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-161100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
600 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER TUESDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ037-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-161100-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-DAVIE-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.